Trump briefed that Iran regime’s hold on power at ‘weakest point’ since 1979 – report

US President Donald Trump has received multiple US intelligence briefings signaling that the hold of the regime in the Islamic Republic is weakening, The New York Times reported Monday, citing several people familiar with the information.

According to the report, the intelligence indicates that “the Iranian government’s hold on power is at its weakest point since the shah was overthrown in the 1979 revolution.”

The report comes as Trump mulls using force against Iran after the regime brutally suppressed protests that began last month, killing at least several thousand civilians and arresting tens of thousands.

The report also said that US intelligence indicates that Iran’s economy is “historically weak,” leading to further belief that the regime is in dire straits.

The protests were sparked by the collapse Iran’s currency, the rial, as Iranian citizens’ savings cratered in value, pushing millions to take to the streets for over two weeks. As of Tuesday, the rial traded with the US dollar at 1,077,500 to $1, nearly its lowest-ever value.

As the regime carried out its brutal crackdown, Trump vowed that “help is on the way,” and said he would take action against the regime if it began killing protesters en masse. While Trump backed down after he said Iran decided not to execute protesters, he has maintained that he may still take action against the regime and has moved significant military assets to the region.

On Monday, the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and its accompanying warships moved into the CENTCOM area of operations alongside additional forces, and is expected to be in operational range of Iran within a matter of days.

While it is not clear what Trump will decide to do, hawkish advisers have been pushing for him to act.

“The goal is to end the regime,” Republican US Senator Lindsey Graham, a close ally of Trump, told the Times. “They may stop killing them today, but if they’re in charge next month, they’ll kill them then.”

In a separate post on X, Graham said: “History tells us the right decision is to stand by those who stand with America and sacrifice for our common cause. History also tells us that evil cannot be accommodated — it has to be defeated.”

I pray for President Trump and his team to make the right decisions to keep America safe at this dangerous time.

History tells us the right decision is to stand by those who stand with America and sacrifice for our common cause. History also tells us that evil cannot be…

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) January 26, 2026

Trump told Axios Monday that while the situation with Iran is “in flux,” Tehran is interested in a diplomatic off-ramp to avoid direct military conflict with the US.

“We have a big armada next to Iran. Bigger than Venezuela,” Trump said.

“They want to make a deal. I know so. They called on numerous occasions. They want to talk,” he added.

In a subsequent briefing with reporters, a US official said: “With regard to Iran, we are open for business. If they want to contact us, and they know what the terms are, then we’re going to have the conversation.”

Earlier this month, US special envoy Steve Witkoff said any deal would have to include a ban on uranium enrichment in Iran, the removal of already-enriched uranium, a cap on Tehran’s stockpile of long-range missiles and a rollback of the Islamic Republic’s support for proxies in the region.

Sailors aboard USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) perform routine maintenance as the aircraft carrier sails in the Indian Ocean, Jan. 26. The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is currently deployed to the Middle East to promote regional security and stability. pic.twitter.com/dkuN946hce

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) January 26, 2026

Tehran has expressed willingness to negotiate with the US but has rejected those terms outright.

Citing informed sources, Axios said Trump hasn’t made a decision on whether or not to strike Iran after pledging to do so if the regime killed protesters — which it did in the thousands.

Trump is slated to hold additional consultations with his national security team this week, with his military options likely to expand following the arrival of the carrier strike group in the region.

Death toll keeps climbing as rights groups gather data

A US-based rights group said Tuesday it had confirmed the deaths of at least 6,126 people in the protest crackdown, adding it was investigating over 17,000 more potential deaths and warning a wave of arrests was ongoing.

The new figures came from the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which has been accurate in multiple rounds of unrest in Iran. The group verifies each death with an extensive network of activists on the ground in the country.

The group has tracked the protests on a daily basis since they began, identified the dead as including at least 5,777 protesters, 214 government-affiliated forces, 86 children and 49 civilians who weren’t demonstrating. The crackdown has seen over 41,800 arrests, it adds.

Iran’s government has put the death toll at a far lower 3,117, saying 2,427 were civilians and security forces and labeling the rest “terrorists.” In the past, Iran’s theocracy has undercounted or not reported fatalities from unrest.

That death toll exceeds that of any other round of protest or unrest there in decades, and recalls the chaos surrounding Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.

NGOs tracking the toll have said their task has been impeded by an almost three-week internet shutdown, warning that confirmed figures are likely to be far lower than the actual toll.

In its statement Tuesday, HRANA condemned “the continuation of communication control policies, the ongoing wave of arrests, and growing concerns over the safety of medical centers for the injured.”

Activists have accused authorities of raiding hospitals to find injured protesters and then arresting them. The health ministry has said all people should present themselves at hospital without worry and not treat themselves at home.

“Security agencies continue to pursue an approach centred on mass arrests, intimidation, and control of the narrative,” HRANA said.

It said the reports of arrests inside hospitals “have generated new human rights concerns regarding the right to access medical care.”

Over the weekend, opposition-linked outlet Iran International, which is based outside Iran, said more than 36,500 Iranians were killed by security forces between January 8 and 9, citing reports, documents and sources. It was not immediately possible to verify the report.

Another NGO, Norway-based Iran Human Rights (IHR), has said it has documented at least 3,428 killings of protesters by the security forces and warned that the final toll could reach 25,000.