US, Israel see easing of Gaza fighting as Hezbollah ‘off-ramp’ to avoid war
IDF drawdown in Strip may suffice for Lebanese terror group to end attacks that have put sides on cusp of all-out conflict, officials say, with Gaza ceasefire still elusive
Jacob Magid is The Times of Israel's US bureau chief

WASHINGTON — The US and Israel are hoping that an imminent scaling back of intensive fighting in Gaza will provide Lebanese terror group Hezbollah with an “off-ramp” to back away from near-daily border attacks that have sent the region spiraling toward a larger conflict, two US and Israeli officials told The Times of Israel on Thursday.
The US has placed a major emphasis on keeping tensions on Israel’s northern border from snowballing into all-out war, working to broker a long-shot diplomatic deal while pinning its hopes on a ceasefire in Gaza leading to the restoration of calm between Israel and Hezbollah.
A Gaza truce has remained elusive however, leading Washington and Jerusalem to begin discussing alternative strategies for deescalating tensions between Israel and the Iran-backed terror group; the Biden administration fears a major regional escalation if the current trajectory of fighting between the sides continues, the two officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
These strategies were discussed during Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s meetings with top US officials in Washington, with the visiting Israeli cabinet member talking to reporters Monday about “the transition to ‘Phase C’ in Gaza and its impact on the region, including vis-a-vis Lebanon and other areas.”
The commander of one of the infantry brigades taking part in the IDF’s offensive in the remaining Hamas stronghold of Rafah told reporters last week that the army expects to wrap up that operation within a month.
The IDF is still expected to continue conducting raids and other operations throughout Gaza aimed at preventing Hamas from regrouping, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged to maintain overall security control of the Strip.

But IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said Monday, “We are clearly approaching the point where we [can] say we dismantled the Rafah Brigade. It is defeated not in the sense that there are no more terrorists in it, but in the sense that it can no longer function as a fighting framework.”
The IDF launched its offensive in Gaza after thousands of Hamas-led terrorists rampaged across southern Israel on October 7, killing some 1,200 people and kidnapping 251. The government says the war will continue until Hamas is completely destroyed and the hostages are freed or recovered.
Hezbollah began lobbing projectiles at northern Israel on October 8, aiming to put pressure on Israel’s military in support of Hamas, but has indicated that the attacks will stop should the fighting in Gaza end. Near-daily skirmishes and cross-border fire on the northern border halted during a week-long truce in November, but efforts to secure a fresh deal have yet to bear fruit.
Mediators have struggled to reconcile the sides since Hamas responded to Israel’s latest hostage deal proposal with significant amendments on June 11.
On Tuesday, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller characterized that response as a “rejection,” hardening Washington’s rhetoric against Hamas.
“They gave us a written response that rejected the proposal put forward by Israel, that President Biden had outlined, that the United Nations Security Council and countries all around the world had endorsed,” Miller said during a press briefing.
This was the first time that a US official had publicly gone this far. To date, only Jerusalem had branded the Hamas response as a rejection. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken criticized Hamas’s counter-proposal but insisted the gaps were still bridgeable.
The Israeli official suggested that the shift in rhetoric out of Washington is part of an effort to further isolate Hamas and provide Hezbollah an “off-ramp” to taper off its cross-border attacks.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said last week that his Iran-backed group would “continue to support Gaza and we are ready for anything… Our demand is clear: A complete and permanent ceasefire in Gaza.”

But despite backing Hamas, Nasrallah has also repeatedly insisted that his organization is not seeking a war with Israel, which would likely devastate Lebanon.
“If they were completely in sync, you would’ve seen Hezbollah more forcefully join the fighting,” the US official said.
Hezbollah attacks from Lebanon and Israeli counter-strikes have nonetheless intensified in recent weeks, leading to growing fears in Washington that a miscalculated launch by either side or a major IDF offensive to push Hezbollah away from the border could significantly escalate the conflict and possibly draw Iran into the fighting as well.
The Israeli official argued that Hezbollah has more to lose than Hamas and that therefore it might be easier to convince Nasrallah to back down than Hamas’s leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar, who US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf branded a “messianic psychopath” last week.
“Until now, the understanding has been that the path to quiet in Lebanon goes through Gaza, but perhaps it’s the opposite,” the Israeli official said.

The US official said the Biden administration will continue pushing for a ceasefire even as it entertains alternative strategies for deescalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.
“Without a ceasefire, it’ll likely be impossible to advance the rest of our regional agenda,” the official said, pointing to efforts to broker a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia and establish a pathway to a future Palestinian state.