Brutal killing shows Islamic State suffering setbacks

The sick way Islamic State terrorists burned Jordanian pilot Lt. Moaz Kasasbeh alive should not be misunderstood: It means the organization has suffered defeats in battle and is letting out its frustration in brutal and vicious acts that go beyond even its past depravities.

The pilot, who was captured on December 24, paid the ultimate price a month ago for the blows the organizations has absorbed in Iraq, Kurdistan, Syria and even on the economic “battlefield.”

Jordan claims the terrorist organization killed the pilot on January 3, but the Islamic State hid this fact, possibly in an attempt to get more out of its negotiations over the two Japanese hostages. But Jordan’s insistence on involving the pilot in negotiations tangled the Islamic State in its own lies.

Killing the Japanese hostages was also part of the terrorist organization’s plan to win more public resonance and create at least the appearance of a successful organization.

However, the reality for the Islamic State is not as simple as it was in the spring and summer of last year. Its territorial expansion has been stopped, especially in Iraq.

In Kobani, which is in the Kurdish area of Syria, members of the organization have been defeated, losing one of the symbols of their war in the region.

Kurdish militias have proven that with a fighting spirit and a few supplies (and aggressive air support from the international coalition) you can halt the advancement of the Islamic State — and even defeat it.

Its routing in Kobani turned IS from an undefeated army to one that can be overpowered potentially in just weeks or even days.

The Kurds in Iraq are not resting on their laurels from the Kobani victory and set out to attack an area north of Mosul, the same Islamic State stronghold that had become a symbol of incredible IS power. In the past few weeks they have succeeded in conquering several villages on the outskirts of the city and they are now approaching Mosul from the north.

At the same time, Shiite militias fighting with the Iraqi Army have been scoring noteworthy victories in the southern outskirts of Mosul, in the Diyala Province for instance, and are approaching that city from the south. Along the way, those same Shiite militias, which rely on American and Iranian assistance, have been expelling thousands of Sunni Muslims from their homes, in a form of revenge on those Sunnis who not too long ago feuded with Shiites.

On the battlefield itself, in light of the aerial blitz on its forces, Islamic State has changed its course of action. It is regrouping in the cities it has already conquered — Mosul, Raqqa in Syria and others — but is finding it difficult to go out on raids with masses of fighters. The coalition’s planes strike IS convoys, and so the organization has taken to operating in civilian attire and in smaller convoys.

Also its income has been seriously hit, because the refineries and fuel tankers it controlled have been attacked and the pressure on Ankara to cease its fuel trade with the Islamic State has increased. This pressure has borne fruit. Although Turkey has not completely stopped buying gas from IS, the extent to which it does so has plummeted.

And besides all that, the Islamic State still has to manage a daily routine, at least in Mosul and Raqqa. It has to give basic assistance to the population, including medical care, sanitation, education and more, even when it does not score big victories. In light of the depletion of its resources and its difficulties on the battlefield, it is hard to imagine how it will prove itself to be a real Islamic country and not just a passing phenomenon in the bloody history of the Middle East.