Election is a victory for annexation, whether or not coalition can be formed

Yamina chairman Naftali Benett and chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat were in agreement on Monday night upon viewing the results of exit polls showing the right on the cusp of an all-out victory that could see it forming a coalition without having to reach across the aisle.

“With God’s help today, the government of Israeli sovereignty [over the West Bank] has been established,” Bennett declared in a victory speech to supporters in Ramat Gan.

“The right-wing camp has won and [Yamina] will ensure that the path of the right-wing will win as well,” he added, hinting at his intention to ensure that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu follows through on his promises to right-wing voters, namely annexation.

On the other side of the Green Line, Erekat was drawing a similar conclusion, though he was not nearly as upbeat as Bennett.

“Settlement, annexation and apartheid have won the Israeli elections,” the senior Palestinian official tweeted. “Netanyahu’s campaign was about the continuation of the occupation and conflict.”

Annexation plans did earn a considerable boost if exit polls showing a 59- to 60-seat showing for Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc prove true. But not necessarily because the Likud leader will be able to form a coalition: While there may not be 61 MKs willing to sit with Netanyahu, there is a majority of lawmakers willing and eager to legislate Israel sovereignty over large swaths of the West Bank.

And luckily for backers of the controversial policy over the Green Line, a coalition is not needed to see it through.

Jerusalem’s plans to declare sovereignty over all West Bank settlements as well as the Jordan Valley appeared just days away from fruition in January after US President Donald Trump introduced his administration’s peace plan.

“Israel will apply its laws to the Jordan Valley, to all the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria, and to other areas that your plan designates as part of Israel and which the United States has agreed to recognize as part of Israel,” Netanyahu declared with Trump by his side after the latter had finished unveiling the plan.

But hours later, Trump’s senior adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner appeared to tap the brakes on the idea of immediate sovereignty, telling CNN that he didn’t believe Israel would annex anything in the coming days. He then shut the door on a swift move entirely, saying last month that Jerusalem would not receive support from Washington for West Bank annexation until a joint US-Israeli mapping team finished turning its “conceptual map” into a detailed one with the goal of making sure “you can have contiguous territory” for a Palestinian state, in a  process that would take “a couple of months.”

That mapping team was already at work in Israel last week, meeting with Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials (but no Palestinians) as they pressed ahead with the project.

Asked how soon after the mapping is completed Israel will apply sovereignty, Netanyahu replied then, “As far as we are concerned, immediately,” and said he would bring it for cabinet approval right away.

Those in Washington who opposed immediate annexation conditioned their support on the mapping team finishing its work, not Netanyahu forming a government.

So even if Netanyahu fails to scrape together a coalition and a caretaker government continues to preside in the months ahead, annexation backers will have a majority in the Knesset thanks to the Yisrael Beytenu party, which has made clear that its opposition is to Netanyahu, not annexation.

Avigdor Liberman, the leader of the secular right-wing party, even pointed out on Saturday that his party has been ready to support the measure for months, submitting annexation legislation to the Knesset that Liberman claimed Netanyahu had torpedoed in order to avoid upsetting the Trump administration.

The far-reaching move would have to pass the test of Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit, who has warned lawmakers in the transitional government over the past year against sweeping measures. However, he did not speak out against annexation when the issue was raised in recent months and may choose to save his capital for the Netanyahu trials where he reportedly has placed himself at risk of being fired.

Consequently, while it is certainly too early for Netanyahu supporters to celebrate, annexation backers have more than a few reasons to be popping the corks on champagne bottles.