Poll shows Likud-led coalition down 10 seats, losing majority, if fresh vote held

Parties in the right-wing, hard-right, and ultra-Orthodox coalition headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would garner between 50-54 Knesset seats if elections were held today, losing its current majority of 64 of the 120 Knesset seats, according to polls published Thursday night by Israel’s two main news channels.

A poll published by Channel 12 indicated a slight improvement for the ruling Likud party, led by Netanyahu, from a May 30 poll that showed a bump for the party following a five-day Israeli military operation in Gaza.

According to the poll, Likud would see a one-seat increase to 27 seats from the previous poll, the same as Benny Gantz’s National Unity party.

However, a Channel 13 poll Thursday night showed Likud with 24 seats, and National Unity with 28 seats, as the largest party.

National Unity, which won 12 Knesset seats in last November’s election, has slowly gained on the 32-seat Likud in recent months amid widespread dismay over the government’s efforts to radically overhaul the judiciary. The boon for Gantz’s party also appeared to come at the expense of Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, which sits just to its left on the political spectrum and has taken a more hardline stance in its opposition to the overhaul and more strict conditions for a compromise with the coalition on the matter.

Thursday’s polls came a day after drama in the Knesset where Netanyahu appeared to lose control of his coalition with several members apparently defecting to vote with the opposition in a secret ballot.

In the Channel 12 poll, Yesh Atid got 18 seats; it got 17 in the Channel 13 survey.

The far-right union of Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit dropped to 10 seats in both polls, with Channel 13 finding that each faction would get five seats in a fresh vote.

The ultra-Orthodox Shas also polls at 10 seats in the Channel 12 vote but gets nine in the Channel 13 survey. United Torah Judaism is steady at seven in both polls.

Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu receives six seats in both polls.

Channel 13 also gives the Islamist Ra’am party six seats, while Chanel 12 finds they would get five.

Channel 13 predicts that the mostly Arab Hadash-Ta’al alliance would get four seats, and in a surprise the Balad party gets four seats, crossing the electoral threshold for the first time in recent polling.

Channel 12 gives Hadash-Ta’al five seats and says Balad would not get into the Knesset again.

The left-wing Meretz party, which did not make it into the current Knesset, gets five seats from Channel 12 and four seats from Channel 13. In both polls, the Labor party under Merav Michaeli fails to enter.

The results of the Channel 12 survey give the current 64-seat coalition just 54 seats, while the former government gets 61, with Hadash Ta’al taking the remaining five.

The drop is more dramatic in the Channel 13 survey, which has the current coalition at 50 seats, the former government at 61, and Hadash-Ta’al, together with Balad, at nine.

Channel 12 also asked who is most suited to being prime minister.

Gantz beats out Netanyahu by 37% to 36% in a head-to-head. Put against Lapid, Netanyahu scores 39% while Lapid gets 30%, according to Channel 12.

Channel 13 asked the public if they believe that Netanyahu remains in control of his coalition, with 58% saying no and 29% believing he does. A further 13% did not know.

The Channel 13 poll had a margin of error of 3.7 percent, while the Channel 12 survey has a margin of error of 4.4%.

Israeli television polls are notoriously unreliable and respondents participated in this survey knowing that another election is not in the offing. However, they do often affect public opinion and drive decision-making among parties.