Israel has not identified any viable replacement for the Iranian regime amid the ongoing US-Israeli bombing campaign against the Islamic Republic, an anonymous senior Israeli official tells The Washington Post.
The official, who is said to be familiar with the planning and strategy for the Iran war, expresses concern over Israel’s goal of toppling the regime in the operation without a clear plan for what would follow.
The remarks come as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government appear to be fully supportive of that goal, with the premier saying Saturday that the campaign would continue unabated and that the “moment of truth” was approaching for Iranians to unite against their government.
“We don’t see anyone who can replace the regime,” the Israeli official says in a phone interview, adding that “I’m not sure it’s in our interest to fight until the regime is toppled…Nobody wants a never-ending story.”
The official assesses that “the regime’s centralized command-and-control structure was weakening, and there were early signs of internal rifts — but nothing to indicate that a crack-up is close,” according to the Post.
The official is also said to doubt “that arming the Kurds or other minorities would be a good strategy because it would alienate the Iranian majority.”
At the same time, the official says the military campaign is close to achieving its core objectives of destroying what’s left of Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missile inventories and weapons-making factories, as well as the leadership of its military, intelligence and internal security forces — but the official wouldn’t provide a timeline for completing these aims.
In light of the apparent complications in toppling the regime, the official presents an offramp to the operation once the military goals are complete, saying, “Of course, we wish to topple the regime, but that’s not the only endgame,” and that “[once the major military targets have been eliminated,] Israel would have achieved its goals…Iran won’t surrender, but it can send messages to accept a ceasefire with US conditions.”
The official also warns against Israel getting “dragged into the quagmire” by trying to eliminate Hezbollah in Lebanon, saying that “We are willing to engage with Lebanese officials [to] reach agreement on a ceasefire” there, and that while Israeli ground troops are inside southern Lebanon to attack Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force, “we are not planning large ground operations” in the neighboring country.