US-Iran negotiations for a deal to curb Tehran’s nuclear program are shaping up toward a deal that isn’t very different from the 2015 nuclear deal that US President Donald Trump withdrew from in 2018, Reuters reports, citing eight unnamed officials and diplomats from all sides of the negotiations who have disclosed previously unreported details under discussion.
The sudden pivot to negotiations with Iran in April was a shock for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had flown to Washington seeking Trump’s backing for military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and learned less than 24 hours before a joint White House press event that US talks with Iran were starting within days, four sources familiar with the matter tell Reuters.
In just three weeks, the US and Iran have held three rounds of talks aimed at preventing Tehran from building a nuclear weapon in return for sanctions relief. A fourth round is expected to take place in Rome soon.
An initial framework under discussion preserves the core of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — scrapped by Trump in 2018 during his first term, eight sources say.
A deal may not look radically different from the former pact, which he called the worst in history, but would extend duration to 25 years, tighten verification, and expand so-called sunset clauses that pause but don’t completely dismantle aspects of Iran’s nuclear program, all the sources say.
Under the terms being discussed, Iran would limit stockpile size and centrifuge types, and dilute, export or seal its 60 percent uranium stock under unprecedented International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) scrutiny — all in exchange for substantial sanctions relief, all the sources say.
The US State Department, Iran’s foreign ministry and Netanyahu’s office do not respond to requests for comment.
While Israel is demanding Iran not be allowed to enrich uranium at all and Tehran is saying enrichment is non-negotiable, three Iranian officials say that the size of the uranium stockpile, shipping stocks out of the country and the number of centrifuges are under discussion.
Under proposals discussed in rounds of talks in April, Iran would cap enrichment at 3.67%, in line with the JCPOA, all the sources say, including three Iranian officials. Tehran is also open to granting the IAEA expanded access to its nuclear sites, the Iranian sources say.
The proposals do not seek to dismantle Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure entirely as Israel and some US officials want, but aim to lock in permanent constraints on uranium enrichment that deter any breakout, the sources say.
Another possible compromise could involve Iran retaining minimal enrichment, with 5,000 centrifuges, while importing the rest of the enriched uranium, possibly from Russia, one of the three Iranian sources, a senior security official, tells Reuters.
In return for limits on enrichment, Tehran has demanded watertight guarantees that Trump would not again ditch a nuclear pact, the three Iranian officials say.
A senior regional source close to Tehran says the current debate over Iran’s uranium stockpiles centers on whether Iran “will keep a portion of it — diluted — inside the country while sending another portion abroad, possibly to Russia.”
According to the source, Iran has even floated the idea of selling enriched uranium to the United States.
Iran currently operates around 15,000 centrifuges. Under the JCPOA, Iran was allowed to operate around 6,000.
“Essentially, the negotiations are shaping into a ‘JCPOA 2,’ with some additions that would allow Trump to present it as a victory, while Iran could still keep its right to enrichment,” the senior Iranian official says.