US more optimistic than Qatari, Egyptian mediators that ceasefire deal can be reached this week, sources say

WASHINGTON — The US is more optimistic than Egyptian and Qatari mediators about the chances that a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal can be reached this week, four sources familiar with the negotiations tell The Times of Israel.

US special envoy to the Mideast Steve Witkoff told reporters earlier Tuesday that he is hopeful a deal can be reached this week and that three of the four sticking points have been resolved over the past three days of proximity talks in Doha.

A source familiar with the matter said the three issues Witkoff suggested have been solved were Hamas’s demand for guarantees from the mediators that the ceasefire will remain in place even if talks on the terms of a permanent ceasefire have not wrapped up by the end of the 60-day truce under discussion; Hamas’s demand for aid to be surged into Gaza through UN-backed mechanisms; and terms of the hostage-prisoner swap.

The source notes that while progress was made on the first two issues, the identities of Israelis and Palestinians to be released in the deal have not yet been discussed by the negotiators in Doha, with Hamas insisting that other matters be resolved first.

However, the number and identities of those being released are not viewed to be as thorny an issue as the other ones, the source familiar says, speculating that this is why Witkoff grouped the hostage-prisoner swap component of the deal with the issues that have already been solved.

The remaining obstacle is the partial withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza during the length of the 60-day truce, a US official and the source familiar with the talks tell The Times of Israel. Israel is insisting that it remain in key corridors of southern Gaza, including the Morag Corridor, where it plans to create a “humanitarian city” to which the Strip’s entire population will be herded and prevented from leaving once vetted.

Two Arab diplomats briefed on the talks tell The Times of Israel that Egypt and Qatar are far less optimistic about the chances of reaching a ceasefire this week, arguing that the gaps are more prominent than Witkoff indicated.

While the US has offered Hamas verbal assurances through mediators that they will make sure the temporary truce remains in place even if an agreement is reached on a permanent ceasefire by the end of the 60-day agreement, one of the Arab diplomats says that verbal assurances are unlikely to suffice.

Hamas wants the text of the ceasefire to state that the truce will remain in place so long as negotiations on a permanent ceasefire continue, dropping the condition included in an earlier version that the talks be held “in good faith,” the Arab diplomat and the source familiar say. Hamas feels Israel will use that clause to abandon the ceasefire, as it did in March.

Verbal assurances may also carry less weight for Hamas, with a Palestinian official telling The Times of Israel that the terror group received ones before it released American-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander in May, with mediators claiming then that it would lead the US to pressure Israel to end the war — something that has yet to take place.

For its part, the Israeli outlook on the current state of the talks appears closer to that of the more hesitant Arab mediators than Witkoff.

A senior Israeli official told reporters on Monday that Hamas’s July 4 response to the latest ceasefire proposal moved the sides backward and that more than a few days might be needed to reach an agreement.