Poll: Democrats, Republicans split on Israel’s responsibility for war’s escalation
Though most voters blame terror groups Hamas and Hezbollah, 6 in 10 Democrats say Jerusalem has a ‘lot’ of responsibility; only a quarter of Republicans agree
Many American voters are concerned that the ongoing Middle East conflict will escalate into an all-out regional war, a new poll has found, with about half of voters “extremely” or “very” worried about the possibility of a broader war in the region.
Though there is concern about the conflict growing, according to a survey from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, fewer voters — around 4 in 10 — are concerned that the United States will be drawn into a war in the Middle East. The poll was conducted prior to Israel’s strike on military bases in Iran overnight Friday, which came in response to a massage Iranian rocket barrage on Israel at the beginning of the month.
The conflict in the Middle East has become a major campaign issue as former US president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris attempt to win over Muslim and Jewish voters in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. And although Democrats and Republicans are similarly worried about the potential for the war to expand, they disagree about who is to blame for its recent escalation and how the US should be involved going forward.
The war against Hamas began when the terror group launched a brutal assault in southern Israel, killing some 1,200 people and seizing 251 hostages, many of whom are still held in Gaza. Lebanon-based Hezbollah began firing rockets and drones into Israel the next day, and planned an October 7-style invasion of northern Israel. Iran, which backs both terror groups and like them is committed to Israel’s destruction, sent two major barrages of missiles into Israel, in April and in October.
Partisan divide on Israeli government’s level of responsibility
About 6 in 10 voters say the Palestinian terror group Hamas, the Iranian government and the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah have “a lot” of responsibility for the escalation of the war in the Middle East. Roughly 4 in 10 voters think the Israeli government has “a lot” of responsibility, and only about 2 in 10 say the US government has “a lot” of responsibility.
But there’s a big partisan split on whether the Israeli government bears “a lot” of responsibility for the war’s escalation. About 6 in 10 Democrats say they do — similar to the share of Democrats who say Hamas bears “a lot” of responsibility — while only about one-quarter of Republicans say the Israeli government bears “a lot” of responsibility.
Voters support Iran sanctions, but not sending US troops
Voters broadly support economic sanctions on Iran, which could hinder support to its proxy terror groups Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. A majority, 55 percent, are in favor of imposing sanctions. They are about evenly divided on whether the US should be providing weapons to Israel’s military, and voters are more likely to oppose sending government funds to aid Israel’s military than to support it.
Deploying US troops to aid Israel’s military garners little support among voters, regardless of their partisan affiliation. About half of voters oppose deploying US troops to aid Israel’s military. Only about 2 in 10 voters favor deploying US troops to assist Israel, and a similar share have a neutral view.
The US has deployed an advanced air defense missile system in Israel to assist against attacks from Iran.
Many think the US is doing what it can on ceasefire efforts
The US is still pressing for any movement on short-term ceasefire proposals, despite letdowns in the past and little expectation of immediate breakthroughs ahead of the election.
About half of voters think the US is doing “about as much as it can” to push for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah, while 3 in 10 say it could be doing more. Roughly 2 in 10 voters say the US should be doing less.
Republicans are more likely than Democrats to want less US involvement in ceasefire efforts. About 3 in 10 Republicans say the US should do less, compared to about 1 in 10 Democrats. About 6 in 10 Democrats say the US is doing what it can, compared to about 4 in 10 Republicans.
Democrats, Republicans, and independents are about equally likely to say the US could be doing more
The poll of 1,072 adults was conducted Oct. 11-14, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the US population. The margin of sampling error for registered voters was plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
