Poll: Plurality of Israelis oppose $841 million Smotrich plan to expand settlements

Plan, part of state budget, would expand construction, infrastructure in settlements, legalize outposts; survey finds PM’s coalition would win 52 of the 120 Knesset seats in election

A plurality of Israelis oppose far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s plan to spend NIS 2.7 billion ($841 million) to expand Israeli settlements in the West Bank, according to a new survey conducted this week for Zman Yisrael, The Times of Israel’s Hebrew-language sister site.

Almost 46 percent of Israelis said they oppose the plan, which would see funds allocated over five years to expand construction and infrastructure in settlements and to legalize outposts that were built without government permits. ֿ

Some of the outposts have become hotbeds for spiking settler violence against Palestinians, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly discussed evacuating some of them.

Nearly 39% of Israelis said they support the plan, while 15.6% said they have no opinion on the matter.

The plan was inserted as a clause in the state budget, which was passed by the cabinet last week. It needs to pass three votes in the full Knesset, along with going through committee meetings, before being adopted into law.

The survey was conducted on December 10-11, 2025, by Tatika Research and Media in collaboration with the Adgenda panel, and included 500 Jewish and Arab respondents. The margin of error is 4.4%.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Ministers sits alongside several ministers and MKs during a ’40-signature’ debate at the Knesset in Jerusalem, on November 10, 2025. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

The survey also polled respondents about their vote in the upcoming elections, which are due to be held by the fall of 2026.

It found that Netanyahu’s Likud party would win the most seats in the 120-seat Knesset, taking 28.

The second-largest party would be the eponymous faction led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett, which would win 21 seats.

The centrist Yesh Atid, hawkish Yisrael Beytenu and Sephardi Haredi Shas parties would each win 10 seats.

The left-wing Democrats would win nine seats, while the Ashkenazi Haredi United Torah Judaism would win eight.

The far-right Otzma Yehudit would win six, while Yashar, a new party founded by ex-IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, would win five, as would the Islamist Ra’am.

Winning four seats each would be the Arab Hadash-Ta’al and HaMiluimnikim (“The Reservists”), a new party focused on universal military conscription.

Ministers and lawmakers attend a plenum session at the assembly hall of the Knesset, in Jerusalem, November 26, 2025. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

The far-right Religious Zionism (Smotrich’s own party), as well as the centrist Blue and White and the Arab Balad, would fail to gain enough votes to enter the Knesset.

Overall, the survey found that the current governing coalition would win 52 seats, considerably short of a 61-seat majority and far lower than its current 64. The parties generally seen as comprising the anti-Netanyahu bloc, meanwhile, would win 55 seats. HaMiluimnikim has not ruled out joining either a pro- or anti-Netanyahu coalition, making it a potential kingmaker.

In total, Arab parties would win nine seats.

The electoral map is expected to change ahead of the election, as parties merge, form or drop out.

Knesset opinion polls are notoriously unreliable, yet highly influential in driving candidates’ decision-making.