Israel-Saudi deal ‘virtually impossible’ this year, Saudi insider tells NY Times

Despite US President Donald Trump’s optimism, an Israel-Saudi normalization deal is “virtually impossible” by year’s end and would require a “miraculous change” in Jerusalem, a Saudi commentator close to the kingdom’s leadership has said, according to a New York Times report Saturday.

The comment came ahead of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s upcoming trip to Washington, DC, set for mid-November, when Trump will likely push the issue.

Trump has repeatedly expressed his belief that Arab and Muslim countries will be able to normalize relations with Israel now that a ceasefire he helped broker has been reached in Gaza, and the Iranian nuclear threat has ostensibly been neutered.

However, Ali Shihabi, the Saudi commentator, said a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia was “virtually impossible” by the end of the year, “unless a miraculous change took place in Israel.”

Shihabi said that the prince, commonly known as MBS, is insisting that Israel take an “irrevocable, major step toward a Palestinian state” before normalization.

Riyadh has long said it will only normalize ties with Israel if Jerusalem agrees to establish a time-bound, irreversible pathway to a future Palestinian state — a condition that seems highly unlikely due to the current right-wing government’s vehement opposition to a two-state solution.

A normalization deal remains Riyadh’s only remaining leverage to utilize on behalf of the Palestinians, and “the kingdom wants to use that card to try and solve the problem once and for all for the benefit of the long elusive regional stability,” Shihabi told The Times.

During his visit, MBS will try to acquire F-35s, America’s most advanced fighter jet, while advancing a deal that would allow it to build a civilian nuclear program, officials told the paper.

Most significantly, he will be focused on signing a mutual defense pact, a US official and another person familiar with the trip told The Times.

The agreement would be similar to a recent deal signed with Qatar, the officials said, which pledged to treat any armed attack on Qatar as a threat to the United States, following Israel’s failed attempt in September to kill leaders of Hamas with an airstrike on Doha.

Saudi Arabia has long sought guarantees similar to the Qatar deal as part of Washington’s efforts to normalize relations between Riyadh and Israel. These efforts were stalled by Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, which sparked the war in Gaza.

In May, Trump dropped demands that Saudi Arabia normalize ties with Israel as part of nuclear cooperation talks. The condition was a major sticking point for former US president Joe Biden during his term.