NYT: Iran believed Israel wouldn’t attack before talks with US set for Sunday, leading to fateful errors

An anti-Israel poster, which reads in Persian "look for shelters among the debris," hangs on the side of building in Tehran on June 14, 2025. (Atta KENARE / AFP)
An anti-Israel poster, which reads in Persian "look for shelters among the debris," hangs on the side of building in Tehran on June 14, 2025. (Atta KENARE / AFP)

Iran seriously miscalculated in the lead-up to Israel’s strikes on Friday, believing that it would never have attacked before a round of nuclear talks with the United States scheduled for Sunday, officials close to Iran’s leadership tell The New York Times.

Due to this miscalculation, Iran’s top military commanders did not seek shelter and ignored recommendations not to congregate in a single area, the officials say.

Israel eliminated most of Iran’s top military brass at an emergency meeting in the opening strikes early Friday morning.

According to private texts shared with The Times, Iranian officials angrily asked: “Where is our air defense?” and “How can Israel come and attack anything it wants, kill our top commanders, and we are incapable of stopping it?”

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