Poll: Winter’s right-wing party would shrink pro-Netanyahu bloc; Eisenkot up on PM by 10 points

The new right-wing party set to be launched tomorrow by hawkish former IDF Gen. Ofer Winter would receive enough votes to enter the Knesset but would have the effect of shrinking the bloc of parties supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to a poll by Channel 12.

The poll finds that if Winter’s party joins the fray, which is expected to happen tomorrow, it would receive four seats in the Knesset, but that the pro-Netanyahu bloc would win just 49 seats in total, far short of the 61 needed to form a government and one fewer than it would receive without Winter’s party. The anti-Netanyahu bloc, meanwhile, would win 60 seats, just shy of a majority and one more than it would win otherwise. Arab parties would win 11 seats.

The reason Winter’s entrance would hurt the pro-Netanyahu bloc’s tally is that many of his voters would be siphoned from the far-right Religious Zionism party, which is currently slated to win four seats. But if Winter’s party competes, it would effectively reshuffle the deck such that Religious Zionism would fall short of entering the Knesset, Netanyahu’s Likud party would lose a seat and the opposition B’Yachad party would gain a seat.

Leading the pack under that scenario would be the opposition Yashar Party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, with 24 seats, followed by Likud with 21 and B’Yachad with 16.

Next would come two opposition parties: The left-wing Democrats with 11 and hawkish Yisrael Beytenu with nine.

Among the smaller pro-Netanyahu parties, the far-right Otzma Yehudit would stand at nine, the Haredi United Torah Judaism and Shas parties would be at eight and seven, respectively, and Winter would be at four.

Among Arab parties, the Joint List would be at seven and Ra’am would be at four.

The poll also found that 44% of voters prefer Eisenkot to prime minister versus 34% for Netanyahu, though prime ministers are not elected directly. Sixteen percent are undecided.