Pollsters try to explain mistaken results

After exit polls turned out to be off by up to three seats for the Likud and Zionist Union factions, senior Israeli pollsters explain in Haaretz what went wrong and their reactions to the results.

Channel 10 pollster Camil Fuchs says he only heard about the results Wednesday morning, after which he “thought he was dead,” both because he was backing Herzog and because he realized that he had failed professionally.

Fuchs also noted that exit polls picked Shimon Peres in 1996 when Netanyahu turned out to be the winner, but the results were much further off this time.

Channel 2’s Mina Tzemach says that the press misunderstood the polls by looking at the gap in mandates between Likud and Zionist Union, whereas the polls give forecasts for each party separately.

“According to this, we were not so far off. We said on Channel 2 that Likud will get 28 mandates and it received 30, and we said the Zionist Union received 27 mandates and it got 24.”

Her polls were perfect in predicting the order of the parties by mandates, Tzemach emphasizes.

Both pollsters also blame the fact that their exit polls closed before the voting stations did, and Likud received many late votes.

Fuchs also blamed the voters, saying some refused to talk to the press, and others lied to pollsters.