Report: US intelligence report week before war found large-scale assault on Iran unlikely to cause regime collapse

A classified report by the US National Intelligence Council concluded that the Iranian regime was unlikely to be toppled even by a large-scale assault, the Washington Post reports.

Three people familiar with the report tell the newspaper that the assessment, completed around a week before Israel and the US launched their assault on the Islamic Republic, outlined small- and large-scale assaults as scenarios for potential succession.

The report concluded that protocols would be followed if supreme leader Ali Khamenei were to be killed to ensure the regime’s survival, with it “unlikely” that Iran’s opposition would take control.

The Post says the White House would not comment on whether US President Donald Trump received the assessment before launching the assault.

The newspaper says the intelligence report did not appear to examine other scenarios, including a potential ground operation by US troops.