Survey shows current coalition losing to current opposition, and more heavily to bloc led by Bennett

A poll published by Channel 12 news shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud remaining the largest party if elections are held today, albeit closely challenged by either former defense minister Benny Gantz’s National Unity party or a prospective party headed by former prime minister Naftali Bennett.

Were elections held today, the poll shows, however, the current coalition would win only 51 seats in the 120-member Knesset, with the current opposition winning 64, and the non-aligned Arab Hadash-Ta’al party holding the other five seats.

The survey gives Likud 23 seats, to National Unity’s 19, with Yesh Atid in third place with 15 seats. Though the poll is the first in months from the TV channel to show the far-right Religious Zionism squeaking into the Knesset, a mapping of likely alliances shows that parties in the opposition (including The Democrats, an amalgam of Labor and Meretz, which is currently outside the Knesset) would hold a solid majority over those in Netanyahu’s current government.

Should Bennett enter the picture, though, Likud would drop to 22 seats, just barely ahead of Bennett’s 21, while National Unity and Yesh Atid would fall to 12 and 11 seats, respectively.

In such a scenario, the current coalition parties would muster only 46 seats, while the anti-Netanyahu parties, including Bennett’s, would win 69 seats, again with Hadash-Ta’al holding the other five.

Both scenarios have Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope and the nationalist Arab Balad party falling below the threshold to enter the Knesset. Should Bennett throw his hat in the ring, Bezalel Smotrich would join them on the sidelines, the poll shows.

Asked who they prefer as prime minister, respondents choose Netanyahu over opposition leader Yair Lapid by 39% to 28%. They prefer Netanyahu to Gantz by 36% to 31%. But they favor Bennett over Netanyahu by 40% to 32%.

The Degem/IPanel survey was conducted today by phone and internet, with 501 respondents forming a representative sample of Israel’s adult population. It puts the margin of error at +-4.4 percent.