As Iran protests grow, Israel watches closely but prefers to remain on sidelines

Ex-intel official says Jerusalem unlikely to strike unprovoked, as it would risk weakening demonstrations; Hebrew U expert says Iranian instigation would be ‘suicide for regime’

AP — Israel is “closely monitoring” the fallout from widespread Iranian protests, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday, as US President Donald Trump’s threats to attack Iran could escalate the protests within the borders of the Islamic Republic into a regional war.

“The people of Israel, the entire world, are in awe of the tremendous heroism of the citizens of Iran,” Netanyahu said at the start of the weekly cabinet meeting. He condemned the killing of civilians and said he hoped to rebuild relations between Israel and Iran once the country was “freed from the yoke of tyranny.”

Netanyahu and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke overnight Saturday about a number of issues, including Iran, according to an Israeli official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

Israel has been on alert for the possibility that Tehran will launch an attack, either to focus the public on an external enemy or in response to a US strike.

But the military said there were no new guidelines for civilians to stay close to bomb shelters over concerns of a potential Iranian missile attack. Such watnings have been in the past when there were concrete threats.

The IDF said the protests in Iran are an “internal Iranian matter,” but that the military “will be equipped to respond with power if need be.”

A former Israeli intelligence official said Israel is unlikely to instigate an attack against Iran, even though it could have an easy target, as Iran’s leadership is weakened and distracted by the protests roiling the country.

Smoke rises as protesters gather amid evolving anti-government unrest at Vakilabad highway in Mashhad, Razavi Khorasan province, Iran, January 10, 2026, in this screen grab obtained from a social media video. (SOCIAL MEDIA/via REUTERS)

“From an Iranian standpoint, the last thing Iran wants to see is diverting their attention toward Israel,” said Danny Citrinowicz, who once headed research on Iran in one of the Israeli military’s intelligence branches and is now a senior researcher with the Israeli defense think tank the Institute for National Security Studies.

“Their priority, first and foremost, is to retrieve calmness and stability in Iran.”

Neither side has an appetite for another war

The current situation in Iran is so uncertain that Israel is likely to wait and see what will happen next, Citrinowicz said. He added that “neither side has an appetite” to start a repeat of the 12-day war of last summer.

The war began with Israel targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites, saying it could not allow Tehran to develop atomic weapons and that it feared the Islamic Republic was close. It also said Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal had become a major existential threat.

Israeli strikes on Iran killed 1,190 people and wounded another 4,475, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency. Iran’s missile barrages killed almost 30 people in Israel and wounded 1,000.

In this frame grab from footage circulating on social media from Iran, protesters once again take to the streets of Tehran despite an intensifying crackdown as the Islamic Republic remains cut off from the rest of the world in Tehran, Iran, January 10, 2026. (UGC via AP)

On Sunday, Iran’s parliament speaker warned the US military and Israel would be “legitimate targets” if America strikes the Islamic Republic. Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf made the threat as lawmakers rushed the dais in the Iranian parliament, shouting: “Death to America!”

Trump, who has posted a number of times on social media about Iran over the weekend, has a history of following through on threats to attack. “Do not play games with President Trump. When he says he’ll do something, he means it,” the State Department warned on Saturday.

Citrinowicz said that an attack, either American or Israeli, could have the opposite impact on the protests, possibly even weakening the protests by fostering a sense of patriotism and uniting against a common enemy.

The US both brokered the ceasefire and assisted Israel during the Israel-Iran war this past summer, by dropping bunker-buster bombs on multiple Iranian nuclear sites — a move that was crucial for Netanyahu to declare to the Israeli public that Israel had achieved its objectives against Iran’s nuclear program and accept Trump’s truce.

An internal Iranian affair

“What Israel is really concerned with is ballistic missiles, and stuff like that, not what kind of regime is going to be in Iran,” said Menahem Merhavy, an expert on Iran from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

“Unless there’s something really dramatic happening with missiles, I don’t see Israel stepping into this.”

Iranians drive past an anti-US and anti-Israel billboard displaying a message that reads ‘watch out for your soldiers,’ in Tehran on January 4, 2026 (ATTA KENARE / AFP)

And an Iranian attack against Israel would be “a suicide note for the regime,” Merhavy said, because there will be little outcry if Israel responds strongly against the Iranian leadership, given the outrage over its hard-handed response to the protests. “There are few tears that will be shed if, say, Israel kills the minister of foreign affairs,” Merhavy said.

He noted that Israel could help on the margins, like enabling internet access to certain individuals or leaders, but said even that is doubtful.

“Israel doesn’t want to meddle with this. It’s internally an Iranian matter,” Merhavy said.