Do Zohran Mamdani’s opponents have a path to defeating him in NYC mayoral election?

NEW YORK — After former New York governor Andrew Cuomo conceded New York City’s Democratic party mayoral primary to opponent Zohran Mamdani on Tuesday night, the mood was jubilant at the latter’s campaign event.

“Together we have shown the power of the politics of the future,” said Mamdani, a state assemblyman representing part of Queens.

“If this campaign has demonstrated anything to the world, it is that our dreams can become reality,” he said, to cheers.

Despite the mood after Mamdani’s stunning, upset victory over veteran politician Cuomo, he has not secured his position as mayor, even if he is highly likely to win November’s general election.

To start, the city uses a ranked-choice voting system that allows voters to select up to five candidates in order of preference. If no candidate wins a majority of first-choice votes, the ranked-choice system comes into play in successive rounds of counting. That process will wrap up on July 1.

Mamdani, 33, won about 43% of first-choice votes, well ahead of Cuomo’s 36%. The third-place finisher, New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, received 11%. Lander and Mamdani cross-endorsed each other ahead of the vote, meaning they asked their supporters to rank the other candidate in second place, in a boost to both campaigns, but primarily to Mamdani’s, since Lander will not make it to the final round of counting.

With Mamdani’s support from Lander’s voters, there does not appear to be a path for Cuomo to catch up during the ranked-choice counting. It was notable that Cuomo conceded before the process even began.

That leads to the general election in November. The vote could end up being a five-way race, with Mamdani the heavy favorite.

The other candidates, or potential candidates, are Cuomo, New York City Mayor Eric Adams, Republican Curtis Sliwa and independent Jim Walden. Mamdani is a harsh critic of Israel who has alarmed many Jewish voters with his anti-Israel rhetoric and policy proposals, while Cuomo, Adams and Walden have leaned into the mainstream Jewish vote during their campaigns.

Democrats outnumber Republicans in the city by about six to one, giving the Democratic nominee a huge advantage in the general election.

Cuomo ran in the Democratic primary, but also registered to run as an independent, meaning he can still compete in the general election. He has not committed to doing so, though.

“I want to look at all the numbers as they come in and analyze the rank choice voting,” Cuomo said in a statement after he conceded. “I will then consult with my colleagues on what is the best path for me to help the City of New York, as I have already qualified to run for mayor on an independent line in November.”

If Cuomo wins a significant number of ranked-choice votes, it may encourage him to run in the general election, but that data will not be available until Tuesday.

Adams is unpopular with the public, weighed down by his dealings with the Trump administration and his administration’s corruption controversies. He maintains a well of support in Jewish communities, though, particularly in Brooklyn, where he served as the borough chief before becoming mayor, building ties with Jews there.

He has petitioned to run on two ballot lines — “EndAntiSemitism” and “Safe&Affordable” — although he must select one of them for the election.

Cuomo and Adams are both moderates who are competing for the same voters, to Mamdani’s right, and may split the centrist vote if they both run, boosting Mamdani’s chances.

Sliwa is a perennial Republican candidate who ran unopposed in the primary. The city is overwhelmingly Democratic and he has little chance of winning.

Walden, a former federal prosecutor, is another long-shot candidate who has prioritized the fight against antisemitism.

Adams, Sliwa and Walden are gearing up for the November vote.

“The fight for New York’s future begins tonight,” Adams said on Tuesday.

“We deserve a mayor who will keep driving down crime, support our police, fight antisemitism, and stand up for working-class New Yorkers,” he said.

Adams, who had a long career in law enforcement before getting into politics, has rolled out a series of pro-Jewish initiatives in recent months, including setting up an antisemitism task force, establishing a US-Israel business council, and codifying the IHRA definition of antisemitism for the city government.

Adams will have an uphill battle to defeat Mamdani. A March poll put Adams’s approval rating at only 20%. Mamdani won more than 430,000 first-choice votes, while in 2021, Adams won 289,000 first-choice votes. The November election will not use ranked-choice voting.

Waiting for the data

The picture will become clearer as more data emerges about the Democratic primary. Before the vote, Mamdani polled strongest with young, white liberals, while older, minority, and Jewish communities favored Cuomo.

Initial precinct data on the primary vote showed that Mamdani did well in wealthier areas, while Cuomo did better in Black and Jewish neighborhoods, and the more conservative, less populous Staten Island. Cuomo won more than 90% of the vote in Hasidic areas of south Williamsburg, for example, while only blocks away, in the more gentrified, northern part of the neighborhood, Mamdani won more than 70%, and Lander more than 20%. Adams and Cuomo share a similar voter base.

The national political picture could also affect the general election. Mamdani’s win gives him a national stage when the Democratic party is reckoning with the split between the moderate camp that is more supportive of Israel, and the far-left represented by figures such as Mamdani, New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Some mainstream Democrats, including New York leaders, have applauded Mamdani, while others voiced concern about his win.

US President Donald Trump, who is unpopular in New York, is another wild card. Cuomo positioned himself as a more seasoned politician better able to stand up to Trump, while Mamdani, who was elected to the state assembly in 2021, has little political experience. Adams has taken fire for his friendly ties with the Trump administration.

“It’s finally happened, the Democrats have crossed the line. Zohran Mamdani, a 100% Communist Lunatic, has just won the Dem Primary, and is on his way to becoming Mayor,” Trump said in a Truth Social post on Wednesday.

There is some precedent for the winner of the Democratic party primary losing the general election.

In 1993, Democratic nominee David Dinkins, the incumbent, lost to Republican candidate Rudy Giuliani, partly due to the Crown Heights riots targeting Jews in 1991 that occurred under Dinkins’ watch.

In 2001, Michael Bloomberg, a lifelong Democrat, switched to Republican and defeated Democratic nominee Mark Green. Bloomberg won his second term as a Republican in 2005, and won again as an independent in 2009.