Blinken says war may erupt in Lebanon despite none of the sides wanting one

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says that Israel “has effectively lost sovereignty in the northern quadrant of its country because people don’t feel safe to go to their homes.”

In an on-stage interview at the Brookings Institution, Blinken reiterates his belief that Israel does not want a war in Lebanon, but admits that “they may well be prepared to engage in one if necessary — from their perspective — to protect their interests.”

He says that Hezbollah does not actually want a war, that Lebanon does not want one either because it would be the primary victim; and that Iran does not want a war because it would prefer to save Hezbollah for a scenario in which it has a direct conflict with Israel.

“On the one hand, no one actually wants a war. On the other hand, you have momentum that may be leading in that direction in which we are determined to try to arrest,” Blinken says.

He asserts that the US has been working tirelessly to broker an agreement that would include “making sure that forces… are pulled back so that they can’t endanger people every single day” — an apparent recognition of Israel’s demand that Hezbollah retreat north of the Litani River, 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) from the border.

Blinken says securing a ceasefire in Gaza is the best way to end attacks by both Hezbollah and the Houthis as well.