Qatar’s energy minister expects Gulf states will shut down oil exports within weeks if Iran conflict persists

Qatar expects all Gulf energy producers to shut down exports within weeks if the Iran conflict continues and drives oil to $150 a barrel, the country’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi tells the Financial Times in an interview published today.

Qatar halted its production of liquefied natural gas on Monday, as Iran continued to strike Gulf countries in retaliation for Israeli and US attacks.

The country’s LNG production is equivalent to about 20% of global supply and plays a major role in balancing both Asian and European markets’ demand for the fuel.

“Everybody who has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure,” Kaabi tells the FT.

Force majeure is unforeseeable circumstances that prevent someone from fulfilling a contract.

“If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted,” he said.

“Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply,” Kaabi says.

Kaabi says even if the war ended immediately, it would take Qatar “weeks to months” to return to a normal cycle of deliveries.

Analysts and economists have highlighted the potential impact of the war on economies globally.

Kaabi forecasts that crude prices could hit $150 a barrel in two to three weeks if ships and tankers are unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most vital oil export ​route, connecting the biggest Gulf oil producers with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.