New poll shows anti-Netanyahu bloc with 74 seats, Smotrich’s Religious Zionism still out

A new poll aired by Channel 12 tonight shows that a potential coalition led by Benny Gantz would secure 69 seats of the Knesset’s 129 seats if elections were held today, compared to a bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu which garnered 46 seats,

Hadash-Ta’al, which is non-aligned, would garner five seats, according to the poll. This would give the anti-Netanyahu bloc 74 seats in total if elections were held today.

The poll, which surveyed 504 people and with a margin of error of 4.4%, was conducted before tonight’s announcement by Gideon Sa’ar that he was splitting his New Hope party from the National Unity faction, dissolving his alliance with Gantz’s Blue and White party. The National Unity alliance joined Netanyahu’s coalition as an emergency measure at the start of the war and Gantz became a member of the war cabinet.

According to the poll aired tonight, the National Unity faction would garner 35 seats, while the Likud would earn enough votes for 19 seats. It projects Yesh Atid with 14 seats, Yisrael Beytenu with 10, the Arab-majority Islamist party Ra’am with five seats and Meretz also with five. These would form part of the anti-Netanyahu bloc.

Ultra-orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, currently in Netanyahu’s coalition, would get 11 and nine seats, respectively. The far-right Otzma Yehudit party, led by Itamar Ben Gvir, would secure nine seats, according to the poll, while Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party would not pass the 3.25 percent electoral threshold necessary to enter the Knesset, as projected in multiple recent polls.

In the last elections in 2022, Smotrich and Ben Gvir ran together, receiving 14 seats. Current polls have the two running separately. The Labor and Balad parties would also not make it into the Knesset if elections were held today, the poll shows.

When asked who they would like to see as prime minister, more respondents — 41% — said Gantz over Netanyahu with just 29% of the votes.

An overwhelming majority of 92% of respondents would like to see a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures. Almost half — 49% — want a state commission of inquiry now, while 43% say they would like to see an inquiry after the war. Just 2% say such an inquiry is not needed and 6% said they don’t know.