Poll: Likud sees slight drop in support following Hezbollah ceasefire

The standing of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party dropped slightly in the wake of the ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, a new poll published by Maariv finds.

According to the poll, if elections were held today, Likud would receive 24 seats, down from 25 in the previous poll two weeks ago, while the Religious Zionism party, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, would pass the electoral threshold and win four seats, up from 0.

Despite Likud’s slight drop, the parties currently making up the coalition would receive 51 mandates out of the Knesset’s 120, up from 48 two weeks prior due to the inclusion of Religious Zionism.

Among opposition parties, Benny Gantz’s National Unity would receive 19 seats and Opposition Leader Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid would win 15, both unchanged from the previous poll. Meanwhile, Yair Golan’s Democrats — a Labor, Meretz union — would win 11 mandates, down from 12.

Without the inclusion of Arab-majority parties Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am — which would receive 5 seats each — the opposition parties would receive 59 mandates, falling short of the 60-mandate majority.

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope would fall below the electoral threshold, as would leftist Arab party Balad.

The poll finds, however, that should former prime minister Naftali Bennett return to politics, a theoretical party led by him would receive 24 mandates, making it the largest party in government, with Likud trailing behind at 21 seats.

In this scenario, the coalition parties would win 44 mandates, and the opposition would win 66 with Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am receiving five mandates each.