Poll shows Eisenkot further strengthening, smaller parties failing to clear threshold without unifying

A new Channel 12 poll released ahead of Israel’s October elections shows Gadi Eisenkot of Yashar further shoring up his position as Israel’s most popular opposition leader, with his party gaining another mandate to rise to 24 seats, maintaining its marginal lead.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud also gains a seat, rising to 23, while Naftali Bennett’s Together party slips to 15 seats.

The poll also highlights the challenge facing several smaller political parties.

In a hypothetical scenario testing parties led by figures including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, Ofer Winter, the Yuli Edelstein-Gilad Erdan alliance, the Benny Gantz-Dedi Simchi alliance, and the Yoaz Hendel-Chili Tropper alliance, none of the lists crosses Israel’s 3.25 percent electoral threshold.

Combined, the parties attract 8.4% of the vote – equivalent to roughly 10 Knesset seats – but their support would be lost if they ran independently.

According to the poll, the broader political balance remains largely unchanged, with the opposition bloc reaching 59 seats, two short of a parliamentary majority, while the coalition holds 51 seats. Arab-majority parties account for the remaining 10 seats.