TV survey: Pro-Netanyahu bloc rises but still totals only 50 seats; far-right back to 2022 strength

A Channel 12 survey finds a slight improvement in the fortunes of the so-called Netanyahu bloc of parties were elections to be held today. However, it shows that anti-Netanyahu parties would still win a clear majority. And it finds that 58 percent of voters surveyed think the prime minister should resign.

The survey gives Netanyahu’s Likud, the two far-right parties Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism, and the two ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, a total of 50 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

This is the highest number in a series of surveys conducted by the TV channel since October 7, but still far short of a Knesset majority. In its last survey, three weeks ago, the Netanyahu bloc scored 47 seats. These parties combined won the November 2022 elections with 64 seats.

If elections were held today, the survey finds, the parties would score as follows: Benny Gantz’s National Unity, 31; Likud, 18; Yesh Atid, 15; Shas, 10; Yisrael Beiteinu, 10; Otzma Yehudit, 10; United Torah Judaism, 8; Hadash-Ta’al, 5; Ra’am, 5; Religious Zionism, 4; and Meretz 4.

The anti-Netanyahu bloc would win 65 seats, with the non-aligned Hadash-Ta’al holding the other five.

Parties failing to clear the Knesset threshold would include Balad, Gideon Sa’ar’s New Right, and Labor.

The figures show a rise in support for the two far-right parties, as compared to previous post-October 7 surveys, with Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit on 10 seats and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism on 4. That marks the same total the two parties won when running together in the 2022 elections. Smotrich’s party has failed to clear the threshold in many recent surveys.

Were a new right-wing alliance led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett, ex-Mossad chief Yossi Cohen and Sa’ar to run, the parties would score as follows: National Unity, 22; Bennett-Cohen-Sa’ar party, 18; Likud, 16; Yesh Atid, 11, and Labor (if led by former deputy IDF chief Yair Golan), 6.

The TV report does not give the numbers for other parties in this scenario, and says working out the balance of power between the blocs is “very unclear.”

When asked whether Gantz’s National Unity should leave the coalition, 42% said it should stay, and 37% said it should leave. Among National Unity’s own voters, 61% said it should stay, and 28% said it should leave.

Asked whether elections should be advanced from the scheduled October 2026 date, 54% said yes, and 37% said no.

Asked whether Netanyahu should resign, 58% said yes, and 33% said no. (A survey by the Kan TV channel three weeks ago found 71% thought Netanyahu should resign immediately or after the war.)

Asked whether Defense Minister Yoav Gallant should resign, 48% said yes, and 39% said no. For IDF chief Herzi Halevi, 50% said yes, and 36% said no. As for Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, 56% said yes, and 26% said no.

The survey was carried out by Midgam, conducted by phone and internet, with a representative sample of 500 voters, and a 4% margin of error.