MBS’s ‘genocide’ critique of Israel is worrying, but a Saudi deal is not a lost cause
Crown prince sharpened his criticism of Israel at Riyadh summit and continues to warm ties with Iran, but a defense pact with US is still his priority and Tehran still the chief foe
Lazar Berman is The Times of Israel's diplomatic reporter
Standing at the podium of the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented his vision of a rosy future for the region once Israel and Saudi Arabia complete a normalization agreement.
To create a new Middle East, he said, “we must continue the path we paved with the Abraham Accords four years ago. Above all, this means achieving a historic peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.”
He called a potential deal “a true pivot of history,” one that “would usher in a historic reconciliation between the Arab world and Israel, between Islam and Judaism, between Mecca and Jerusalem.”
Back in Israel after the trip, the prime minister continued to project optimism around the chances for peace, despite the ongoing war. He even argued that the fight against Iran and its proxies since October 7, 2023 — a conflict that has sparked rage across the Arab world — was helping Israel’s efforts at regional normalization.
“[Arab] countries and other countries see very well the blows we inflict on those who attack us, the Iranian axis of evil,” he said two days after Israeli jets struck military targets in Iran on October 26 this year. “They are impressed by our determination and courage. Like us, they aspire to a stable, secure, prosperous Middle East.”
Israeli officials told The Times of Israel that Netanyahu wants to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon so he can shift his focus to his overarching goal of peace with the Saudis and the cementing of an anti-Iran coalition.
Netanyahu isn’t the only one who has been indicating that a Saudi deal could happen soon. Days before the US election, Secretary of State Antony Blinken sought to make headway on normalization, flying directly from Tel Aviv to Riyadh.
“There remains, despite everything that’s happened, an incredible opportunity in this region to move in a totally different direction,” Blinken said before leaving Israel.
“Saudi Arabia would be right at the heart of that, and that includes, potentially, normalization of relations with Israel.”
But the signs coming out of the kingdom tell a different story. Last week, speaking in front of Arab and Muslim leaders in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler accused Israel of genocide and called on Israel not to violate Iran’s sovereignty.
Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman told the gathered leaders that the kingdom renewed “its condemnation and categorical rejection of the genocide committed by Israel against the brotherly Palestinian people, which has claimed the lives of 150,000 martyrs, wounded and missing, most of whom are women and children.”
Escalation of discourse
The Saudis have criticized Israel throughout the war, but usually through junior officials or Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan.
The fact that it was MBS himself accusing Israel of genocide in a highly public forum was the most noteworthy escalation in Riyadh’s critique of Israel, which has become increasingly strident since the Hamas attacks on October 7.
But there are reasons to brush aside the statements. Summits like the one MBS hosted in Riyadh are often forums for posturing and empty proclamations.
“The path of least resistance for these regimes is to virtue signal their publics in an effort to appease them,” said John Hannah, a senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, “by putting out very tough statements with the hope of making sure their anger is channeled toward Israel rather than being directed at the regimes themselves.”
The Saudis have to be mindful of public sentiment on the war in Gaza. The population has been watching images of dead Gazans on TV for over a year, and is furious.
“He has to listen to what his people are saying, and you don’t want to get too far out of line,” said Simon Henderson, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “It would seem that he was getting out of line, and this is a corrective statement.”
Still, there are signs that substantive shifts away from Israel are taking place.
There has been an “escalation of diplomatic discourse” from Gulf states, with more strident and more frequent public criticism of Israel, said Moran Zaga, an expert on the Gulf region at Mitvim – The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies.
There has also been a flurry of diplomatic activity around the Palestinian issue that is taking place over Israel’s head. In September, European, Arab and Islamic nations launched an initiative — co-chaired by Saudi Arabia — to strengthen support for a Palestinian state. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states also voted for the Palestinians to be granted full membership at the UN.
“Gulf states discovered that they can move the Palestinian issue forward not through Israel,” Zaga continued. “The trend of turning to the international community is gaining momentum.”
The day beyond tomorrow
The other worrying trend for Israel, also reflected in MBS’s remarks, is the ongoing thawing of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Last week, Saudi military chief of staff Fayyad al-Ruwaili traveled to Iran with a senior military delegation to meet his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Bagheri.
In October, the two countries participated in joint naval exercises.
Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia and Shiite-majority Iran severed ties in 2016 after Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran were attacked during protests over Riyadh’s execution of Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr.
They are also on opposite sides of the decade-long civil war in Yemen.
But last March, a China-brokered deal saw the longtime rivals agree to restore diplomatic relations and reopen their respective embassies.
The shift in the Saudi approach to Iran comes from realpolitik concerns over the kingdom’s security, and not any new appreciation for the Islamic Republic.
A leading Saudi journalist found the seeds of Saudi-Iranian détente going back to the Barack Obama administration, writing that “Washington and the West have not been serious about the region’s security since concluding the Iranian nuclear agreement in 2015.”
US President-elect Donald Trump, though well-received in the Gulf, further eroded Saudi trust in his first term. He chose not to strike Iran in response to the September 2019 drone and missile attack on a key Saudi oil processing facility. Once Riyadh understood there would be no American retaliation, it reached out to Iran, understanding it had to avoid a conflict in which it could be forced to fight on its own.
Since October 7, 2023, Riyadh has been working to avoid a full-blown Iran-Israel war that could see Tehran lash out at Gulf states and Western interests in response to Israeli attacks.
“Whatever happens, they’re always looking at the day beyond tomorrow,” said Henderson. “Tomorrow, next week, next year, they will still be there, Iran will still be there.”
Nonetheless, for the Saudis, the Islamic Republic is still the primary threat.
“The only relevant question for the Saudis is not whether or not Iran is a mortal enemy, but what is the best way to keep the Islamic Republic at bay and deterred from attacking Saudi interests, given the geostrategic circumstances of the present moment,” argued Hannah.
MBS’s genocide allegation against Israel at the Riyadh summit “suggests that right now, the Saudis see [appeasing Iran] as the safest way to go. But that can change relatively quickly once the situation changes,” he argued.
The change they want is a defense deal with the US that would include formal guarantees for Saudi security. The Joe Biden administration worked to include normalization with Israel as part of a three-way agreement, and Trump is likely to pursue a deal with similar parameters.
Since October 7, the price of that deal has gone up for Israel, with the Saudis openly demanding movement toward a Palestinian state.
Still, with a more supportive US administration in place and an Iran badly weakened by losing proxies and suffering from renewed sanctions, it is possible that MBS will lower his demands on the Palestinian front, especially if fighting in Gaza dies down.
Until Trump takes office, the Saudis know that there is little chance of achieving the defense pact with the US, so blasting Israel at Islamic summits is an easy way of deflecting domestic dissent.
“The statement was an easy placeholder for the Saudis during this 3-month lame duck period in America when no major diplomatic progress is likely,” said Hannah. “It doesn’t really cost them anything with the US or Israel while allowing them temporarily to placate both their public and the Iranians.”
Once Trump’s policy toward Iran and US allies in the region becomes clear, MBS could change his rhetoric and his approach to Israel.
“These regimes are experts with very long experience in saying one thing for domestic consumption,” said Hannah, “while being very prepared to do the exact opposite once the geopolitical circumstances are right and the risks for them have been sufficiently mitigated.”
