Shin Bet chief reportedly warned in mid-2023 that Gaza war was inevitable; PM responded that Hamas was deterred

Shin Bet Chief Ronen Bar warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu five months before October 7, 2023, that a war in Gaza is inevitable, according to Haaretz.

The two met in late May, after Operation Shield and Arrow against Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza.

According to the report, Bar told Netanyahu that the days-long campaign was only “the first round against the Shiite axis.”

“We must prepare for an opening strike, for a round of assassinations,” Bar continued. “Hamas is the next challenge before us, there will be no escaping from a campaign in Gaza.”

Netanyahu, says Haaretz, argued that Hamas was deterred, citing “a strong balance of terror against Hamas.”

Bar insisted that Israel would face a decision around launching a campaign against Hamas, possibly in reaction to a major operation in the West Bank.

“There is strong balance of terror against Hamas,” Netanyahu reportedly replied, noting that Hamas had stayed out of fights between Israel and PIJ since the 2021 Operation Guardian of the Walls.

In response, Netanyahu’s office calls the report “more fake news. The truth is completely the opposite.”

The Prime Minister’s Office acknowledges the meeting, but says that Bar argued that “Hamas is deterred and strives to maintain stability in the Gaza Strip, and focuses on pressuring Israel in Judea and Samaria.”

The PMO says that Bar recommended “doing nothing,” or reducing the number of Palestinian workers entering Israel.

Netanyahu, says his office, “ordered preparations to exact a heavy price from Hamas, and emphasized that the component of precise assassinations of terror leaders — as demonstrated in Operation Shield and Arrow- lies at the heart of Israeli deterrence, and that preparations must continue to be made to assassinate senior Hamas figures – from [Mohammed] Deif to [Yahya] Sinwar.”