Survey: Gantz’s party soars and he’s much preferred to Netanyahu as PM; no seats for Smotrich

National Unity party leader Benny Gantz would easily be able to form a coalition if elections were held today, a Channel 12 survey shows. His party would be by far the largest in the Knesset, and he also strongly outscores Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the public’s preferred prime minister, the survey finds.

If elections were held today, the survey shows parties in Netanyahu’s pre-war coalition would muster just 44 seats compared to the 64 they won in the November 2022 elections, while the opposition bloc he defeated would win 71 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

The survey also showed the far-right Religious Zionism party of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich failing to make it back into the Knesset.

Gantz’s National Unity party, which joined an emergency war coalition under Netanyahu after the October 7 Hamas massacre in southern Israel, would soar to 37 seats, the survey finds, while Netanyahu’s Likud would crash to 18.

The parties scored as follows (seats won in the 2022 elections in parentheses): National Unity: 37 seats (12); Likud: 18 (32); Yesh Atid: 15 (24); Shas: 11 (11); Yisrael Beytenu 9 (6); Otzma Yehudit 8 (14 in a since-severed alliance with Religious Zionism); United Torah Judaism 7 (7); Hadash-Ta’al 5 (5); Meretz 5 (0); and Ra’am 5 (5).

Religious Zionism, Balad, and Labor (4) all scored below the Knesset threshold.

If parties led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett, former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen and former deputy chief of staff Yair Golan entered the field, the factions would score as follows: National Unity 23; Likud 15; Bennett’s party 13; Shas 11; Yesh Atid 10; Labor-Meretz led by Golan 9; Yossi Cohen’s party 9; UTJ 7; Otzma Yehudit 7; Yisrael Beytenu 6; Hadash-Ta’al 5; and Ra’am 5.

Asked who is more fitting to serve as prime minister, Gantz scored 45% compared to 27% for Netanyahu in a head-to-head. Bennett also outscored Netanyahu, by 33% to 29%. Netanyahu scored 32% over Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid on 28%.

Asked whether elections, not scheduled for some three years, should be brought forward, 57% said yes, compared to 35% no.

Asked whether the Palestinian Authority should take control of Gaza after the war, 54% said no, and 19% said yes.

The survey, conducted by Midgam among 504 respondents, had a 4.4% margin of error.