Poll shows mirror images of fear and distrust between Israelis and Palestinians
As public opinions harden in wartime, biennial Pulse survey finds growing pessimism and rejection of coexistence among the two peoples, but silver lining remains in Arab Israelis
Gianluca Pacchiani is the Arab affairs reporter for The Times of Israel
A poll of Israelis and Palestinians published last Thursday reveals that the two sides nearly mirror each other in their unprecedented levels of fear and distrust. In addition, Jewish Israeli respondents report record-low rates of support for an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the forms of a one- or two-state solution or a confederation with Palestinians.
An indicator of the prevailing distrust is that about 90% of respondents on each side attribute extreme, maximalist aspirations to the other. Sixty-six percent of Jewish Israelis and 61% of Palestinians believe the other side wants to commit genocide against them, and an additional 27% of Jewish Israelis and 26% of Palestinians say the other side wants to conquer the land “from the river to the sea” and expel them.
Furthermore, a record-high 94% of Palestinians and 86% of Israelis say that the other side cannot be trusted.
The findings were published on Thursday in the “Pulse” Israeli-Palestinian poll, a joint public survey conducted in July by the Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) and the International Program in Conflict Resolution and Mediation at Tel Aviv University. The lead authors were Dr. Dahlia Scheindlin, Dr. Khalil Shikaki and Dr. Nimrod Rosler.
It polled 1,270 Palestinians — 830 from the West Bank and 440 from Gaza in person — and 900 Israeli adults online, both Jewish and Arab, in the second half of July.
The findings of the survey, conducted every two years since 2017, also addressed how October 7 and the war impacted support for various possible solutions to the conflict.
The poll found some striking similarities between Israelis and Palestinians. For example, both sides believe that their victimization is the worst compared to other peoples who have suffered from persecution, a view held by 84% of Jewish Israelis and 83% of Palestinians.
The survey also found that an overwhelming majority on both sides legitimize the use of violence against the other. Eighty-one percent of Palestinians justified Hamas’s actions on October 7 as a reaction to the siege and blockade of the Gaza Strip imposed by Israel and Egypt to prevent Hamas from arming itself. For comparison, only 28% of Arab Israelis justified October 7.
Among Jewish Israelis, 84% believe that Hamas’s atrocities justify the ongoing military campaign in the Gaza Strip. The figure is surprisingly high even among left-wing voters, who once represented the bulk of the Israeli “peace camp”: 73% of those in the “moderate left” and 44% who self-identify as members of the “firm left” approve of the war.
Dwindling support for a two-state solution
The survey found that today only a minority on both sides still supports a two-state solution — 40% of Palestinians, a seven-point uptick from the last poll in December 2022, and 21% of Jewish Israelis, a 13-point decrease from 2022 and a record low since this type of question was first asked in polls in the early 1990s.
Remarkably, 72% of Arab Israelis, a sizable minority that has ties to both Israelis and Palestinians, support a two-state solution.
While overall endorsement for two states is below half on both sides, over 60% of both Israelis (62%) and Palestinians (65%) prefer it over a regional war, and both sides would be more inclined to accept it if the right compromises were found.
A compromise that many on both sides find persuasive would be for Israel to allow a number of Palestinian laborers to continue to work inside the country, and in return to be permitted to maintain factories on Palestinian territory, a scenario that is endorsed by 54% of Palestinians and 47% of Israelis.
Among Palestinians, another incentive that many (42%) believe could move public opinion in favor of a comprehensive peace deal would be the release of all Palestinian prisoners in return for the disarmament of existing armed factions and a consolidation of all groups into one security force.
For 61% of Israeli respondents, an effective incentive to garner support would be an agreement from both sides to combat incitement, including in schoolbooks, a denunciation of violence, and a call for tolerance and reconciliation.
Among Arab Israelis, any compromise option put forward by pollsters that could move public opinion toward supporting a two-state solution is viewed highly favorably, with approval rates of 70% or above.
Can an evolving conflict be resolved?
The idea of a confederation, once a popular solution among segments of the Israeli left, now enjoys growing support among Palestinians (35%, up from 22% in 2022) but dwindling support in Israel (20%, compared to 29% in 2022). Notably, the idea is supported by 52% of Arab Israelis, but by only 12% of Jews.
Also, the prospect of a single democratic state with equal rights for all is favored by many Arab Israelis (49%), but is supported only by 25% of Palestinians and 14% of Jewish Israelis.
A far higher number of Jewish Israelis (42%) is in favor of annexation of the West Bank without equal rights for Palestinians, the highest ever recorded in the Pulse survey.
Among West Bank settlers, who were polled as a separate group for specific questions, nearly 60% believe that a two-state solution would increase violence. The result “confirms the near constant theme among settlers and right-wing communities that withdrawal from Gaza, and the Oslo accords, led directly to the attacks of October 7,” an explanatory note to the survey read.
When it comes to the ongoing conflict, both sides appear to be pessimistic. Large majorities (72% among Jewish Israelis, 68% among Palestinians, and 60% among Arab Israeli) expect an escalation of violence in the West Bank.
Similarly, 58% of Israelis (62% of Jews and 41% of Arab Israelis) and 53% of Palestinians believe the Gaza war will expand into a regional war, with the direct participation of Iran.
A minority of respondents, however, seems to be optimistic in the long run. Forty-one percent of Palestinians and 23% of Jewish Israelis believe that the ongoing war is so extreme and unprecedented that it might create an opportunity for a breakthrough for peace, akin to the peace deal signed with Egypt following the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
“In the ongoing war, we notice that the position of public opinion on both sides is hardening. Public opinion is not a force for peace. But we are also finding that it is not an impediment to peace,” said Shikaki during a presentation of the poll results.
“Big gestures such as that of [Egyptian President Anwar] Sadat can massively shift public opinion,” said Alon Yakter, an associate professor of Political Science at Tel Aviv University, who spoke at the presentation and referenced Sadat’s famous address at the Israeli Knesset in 1977, two years before the two countries signed a peace deal. “What is needed is strong leadership.”
