From the Liveblog of
Tuesday, October 7, 2025
Weeks before Oct. 7, IDF chief warned Netanyahu that Israel’s enemies had become more willing to ‘take risks’ and attack
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In a letter sent to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu some two-and-a-half months before the October 7, 2023, onslaught, then-IDF chief of staff Herzi Halevi had warned the premier that Israel’s strategy of deterrence was crumbling, and the country’s enemies were noticing, according to an investigation by the Channel 12 news outlet.
The existence of the letter was first reported back in December 2024, but the new report marks the first time that quotes from the letter have been made public.
According to Channel 12, Halevi explained in the letter that Israel’s strategy of deterrence has historically been built on three factors: Military strength, social cohesion, and a strong relationship with the United States.
But, he warned, Israel’s enemies had noticed weaknesses in all three of these areas, thus reducing Israel’s capacity for deterrence.
While the report does not go into the perceived weaknesses that Halevi was referring to, Israeli society had become deeply divided in the year leading up to October 7, 2023, due to the government’s controversial judicial overhaul plans. At the same time, Israel’s relationship with the US was under strain, as then-US president Joe Biden had been refusing to invite Netanyahu to the White House due to displeasure with the policies of his hardline government.
In his letter, Halevi warned Netanyahu that “the current situation [in Israel] leads to dilemmas among our enemies — whether to take advantage of what is happening and launch an attack on Israel, or to wait for the internal process to continue,” Channel 12 reports.
He wrote that, in his estimate, the developments inside Israel were increasing the chance of “escalation,” although he said he believed that this would come from the northern border, and did not mention Gaza, the report says.
Furthermore, he warned, Israel’s enemies would also potentially be more willing “to take risks in response to actions initiated by Israel, which in effect limits Israel’s freedom of action in the region.”
“We are entering a dangerous zone; it is necessary to act in a way that will prevent harm to the security of the State of Israel and the ability of the IDF to defend it,” Halevi wrote, according to Channel 12.
It was previously reported that Netanyahu received Halevi’s warning while recovering in the hospital after having a pacemaker fitted in the summer of 2023.
During that same hospital stay, he was also warned by then-Shin Bet director Ronen Bar that Israel appeared increasingly vulnerable to attack.
There is no immediate comment from the Prime Minister’s Office in response to the report.
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