As Trump backs away amid global refusal, plan to relocate Gazans looking like pipe dream

The plan for the voluntary migration of Gaza Strip residents, which reverberated in Israel and globally for months earlier in the war, is effectively dead.

Israeli officials admit that the plan – which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu enthusiastically endorsed as a “day after” strategy and even conditioned the end of the war on its implementation – is off the table. Senior figures involved in the matter now concede it is unfeasible.

The “migration administration,” which Defense Minister Israel Katz announced he was establishing in March, still exists on paper. However, it is clearly inactive and will inevitably shut down.

The plan failed primarily because US President Donald Trump gradually backed away from the idea he proposed in February, coupled with the global refusal to accept Palestinian refugees from Gaza.

Currently, Indonesia is the only country willing to accept refugees – possibly even the entire population of Gaza, according to some claims. A senior political source notes, however, that this depends on the compensation offered by the United States.

“The Indonesians are willing to make a deal at an astronomical price, and everything still hinges on President Trump, who once seriously entertained the idea of voluntary migration. Of course, it also depends on the Gazan population’s desire to move there,” the source has told Zman Yisrael, The Times of Israel’s Hebrew-language sister site.

Encouraging voluntary migration was very popular early in the war. Netanyahu discussed it in Likud meetings, and Science and Technology Minister Gila Gamliel drafted an action plan, later circulating AI videos depicting post-migration life in Gaza.

Through the Foreign Ministry and the Mossad, Israel sought countries that would be willing to take in Gazans, holding talks with developing African nations. Congo, Somalia, Rwanda, Ethiopia, and others refused. Efforts continue to this day without significant results.

Israel on Friday became the first country to recognize the breakaway republic of Somaliland, which had in the past been touted as a possible host, but it was not immediately clear if this was tied to them accepting Gazans.

The senior political source says that while most Palestinians in Gaza want to leave, they prefer Western countries over Africa.

There are currently some 2.1 million Palestinians in Gaza. Israeli officials claim one-third still support Hamas, one-third support Fatah and the rest are neutral. Their exit options are limited, as Egypt has adamantly refused to allow a mass exodus of Palestinians through the Rafah crossing.

As noted, Trump – who ceremoniously announced the voluntary migration concept during Netanyahu’s Washington visit in February – began backing away following harsh criticism globally and from his inner circle. The world interpreted the plan as forced expulsion rather than migration.

Meanwhile, the war has ground to a halt. Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza envisions smart cities and economic rehabilitation, not migration. On the contrary, residents will be allowed to leave in exchange for economic benefits and return whenever they wish once rebuilding is complete.

Article 12 of the Trump framework states: “No one will be forced to leave Gaza, and those who wish to leave will be free to do so and free to return. We will encourage people to stay and offer them the opportunity to build a better Gaza.”

Israel puts little faith in this utopian vision or the feasibility of the full 20-point plan, which includes disarming Hamas via an International Stabilization Force that Trump intends to deploy in the second phase.

Moreover, Israel categorically rejects demands from Trump and the European Union to fund rubble removal and Gaza’s rehabilitation, insisting instead that Arab states bear the cost.

Top Israeli security officials assess that the disarmament mission will fail; Hamas, which is currently recuperating, will not surrender its weapons. Consequently, Trump will be forced to admit his plan was unviable and a strategic error, which will cause him to eventually agree – albeit reluctantly – to a new Israeli offensive to force Hamas’s capitulation.

Israeli officials claim this scenario is also anticipated by US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who visited the country this week. Graham met with Netanyahu, Katz, and military and intelligence chiefs, and was presented with all the data.

This reality allows Israel to maintain control over half the Strip, a situation assessed to potentially last for years. Meanwhile, Katz is discussing the establishment of settlements comprised of soldiers in the Strip’s northern buffer zone, effectively aiming to revive the settlements of Elei Sinai, Nisanit and Dugit, which were evacuated during the 2005 Disengagement, a move Katz opposed.

Katz is not explicitly calling for new settlements, instead arguing that these would be strictly military outposts – similar to an outpost in the Sinai Peninsula before the peace agreement with Egypt – to avoid antagonizing the Americans, who are already bristling at his statements. On Thursday, Katz told the “Makor Rishon” conference that the army will never withdraw to the pre-war lines and will deploy across an extensive perimeter to prevent any threat to Gaza border communities.

If it were up to Katz, he would realize the dream of Bezalel Smotrich and others on the far right to flood the area with Israeli settlements. In their view, this might become possible after the next inevitable war in Gaza, which they hope would also finally jumpstart the one-way migration of Palestinians out of Gaza.