Poll: Coalition would lose majority, Yesh Atid soar if elections held today

Channel 2 survey marking imminent anniversary of elections finds Likud losing some ground, Zionist Union losing even more

By ToI Staff 5 March 2016, 6:14 pm

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu greets supporters and hails victory at the Likud party's election headquarters in Tel Aviv, Tuesday, March 17, 2015. (AP Photo/Oded Balilty)

The current Netanyahu coalition would not muster a Knesset majority if elections were held today, an Israeli television survey found.

The survey, carried out for Channel 2 to mark the imminent anniversary of last March 17’s elections, also found a steep fall in support for the Labor Party-dominated Zionist Union, and a dramatic rise in backing for Yair Lapid’s centrist Yesh Atid.

The survey by Mano Geva of the Midgam Institute, which interviewed 500 eligible Israeli voters on March 1 and 2 and had a margin of error of ±4.5%, found that the 120 Knesset seats would be distributed as follows if a vote were held today (current seats in parentheses): Likud: 26 seats (compared to 30 in the current Knesset); Yesh Atid: 19 (11); Zionist Union: 18 (24); Joint (Arab) List: 13 (13); Jewish Home: 11 (8); Yisrael Beytenu: 8 (6); Kulanu: 7 (10); United Torah Judaism: 7 (6); Shas: 6 (7), and Meretz: 5 (5).

The current Netanyahu coalition — comprising Likud, Jewish Home, Kulanu, United Torah Judaism and Shas — holds 61 of the 120 Knesset seats at present. The survey showed the coalition parties falling to 57 seats in total.

Yair Lapid casts his vote at a polling station in Tel Aviv on March 17, 2015. (Photo credit: Ben Kelmer / FLASH90) — Yair Lapid casts his vote at a polling station in Tel Aviv on March 17, 2015. (Ben Kelmer / FLASH90)

Polls in the run-up to last year’s elections, however, also consistently indicated that the Likud could fail to muster a coalition, but largely turned out to have underestimated Likud support and overestimated support for the Zionist Union.

Saturday’s survey showed the most dramatic shift in the growth of support for Lapid’s Yesh Atid, which would constitute the second-largest party in the Knesset if a vote was held today, the poll indicated.