A dissident in Iran awaits Israeli reprisal: ‘There’s a very real fear of all-out war’
As dissatisfaction with the government grows, a regime opponent says citizens are in the grip of uncertainty and distrust their leaders’ ability to protect them
Ever since Iran attacked Israel with ballistic missiles on October 1, and Israel vowed to retaliate, Iranians have been waiting with bated breath. The timing and location of the Israeli strike remain unknown, adding to the anxiety across the country. The waiting has been excruciating for many.
“There are some sadistic journalists in Iran who keep sounding the alarm, claiming that an Israeli attack is imminent, maybe within hours. For the past few nights, I’ve made the terrible mistake of opening Twitter before bed, only to see posts from these ridiculous reporters claiming the attack is about to happen. After that, I can’t sleep – I just lie there, wide awake until 6 a.m., waiting for something to happen,” said Leila (not her real name).
An Iranian woman in her late 30s, Leila lives in Isfahan, a city in central Iran, approximately 320 kilometers (200 miles) south of Tehran.
Six days after the Islamic Republic’s first large-scale missile and drone assault on Israel on April 13, the IDF struck a radar for an air defense battery in Isfahan that provided cover for the nearby underground Natanz nuclear enrichment facility. The strike was intended to demonstrate Israel’s ability to penetrate Iran’s air defense systems.
But this time around, the Israeli response is expected to be far more devastating.
Israeli officials have hinted that the retaliation may target key infrastructure, such as gas or oil rigs, or even Iran’s nuclear sites or military facilities. A strike on Iran’s oil facilities could cripple the economy and disrupt global fuel supplies.
Besides its proximity to the Natanz nuclear site and its dual-use airport and airbase, Isfahan is home to oil refineries and weapons production facilities, making it, as Leila quipped, “a perfect place for a strike.”
A lifelong activist and outspoken critic of the regime, Leila has been detained multiple times, spending months in jail for her participation in anti-government protests, including the mass “Woman, Life, Freedom” demonstrations in 2022.
Identifying herself as a “reformist, not a revolutionary,” she said she voted for the reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian in the last presidential election. She has often spoken with Western media about the situation in Iran. The Times of Israel confirmed her identity through foreign journalists who have previously interviewed her.
Leila is also harshly critical of Israel’s military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, but expressed a desire for better relations at least between the two peoples, describing their leaders as “hopeless.”
With biting sarcasm, Leila spoke about how Iranians have endured the recent tension, their anxieties over a looming Israeli strike, their views on Israel, and life under an increasingly unpopular regime.
She painted a picture of an aspiring regional powerhouse that squanders its resources on funding terror groups across the Middle East, a giant with clay feet, ruled by a fragmented leadership, internationally isolated, with a resilient population struggling daily with a collapsing economy and the dread of being dragged into a regional war.
The following interview has been edited for clarity and conciseness.
The Times of Israel: How did Iranians react to Tehran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel last week?
Leila: First, let me clarify that I speak for myself and my circle of friends and acquaintances, who are also regime opponents and share similar views.
Honestly, in some strange way, the attack was almost a pleasant surprise for us. Let me explain: Inside Iran, we’ve never really believed that our military had the capability to strike significant targets in Israel without turning us into a laughingstock.
[Following the attack, the Iranian army claimed that 90 percent of the missiles launched at Israel hit their intended targets, including military bases. Israel acknowledged that some missiles did hit airbases, but said no major damage was caused. However, foreign media sources suggest the damage may be greater than officially stated.]
We were surprised to learn that some targets were hit, and it appears we caused some damage to Israeli military assets. But don’t get me wrong – this doesn’t mean we’re happy about the war or a potential retaliation. Our leaders have always boasted about us being a regional power, and we’ve mocked them for it.
But now we can hope that if war breaks out, maybe we won’t be wiped out all at once. Maybe we can defend ourselves for a bit.
What’s the general feeling in Iran about an Israeli retaliation?
We know, sadly, that for every missile fired from Iranian soil, there will be a response, and it’s the civilians who will suffer the most. As soon as news of the missile attack spread last week, there was widespread panic. People rushed to gas stations and stocked up on essentials like canned tuna, stuff like that. It was like the early days of the COVID pandemic.
[Videos circulating on social media showed long lines of cars at gas stations in Iran after last week’s missile attack on Israel.]
נערכים לתגובה ישראלית: האיראנים נוהרים לתחנות הדלק מחשש שתקיפה תשפיע על חלוקתו וכי הם ידרשו לברוח מאזורים מותקפים@AmichaiStein1 pic.twitter.com/nodqNvEGvy
— כאן חדשות (@kann_news) October 1, 2024
Some people even keep a packed backpack by the door. There’s a very real fear of all-out war. Many of us, especially my generation and older, remember the Iran-Iraq War [the bloody conflict between the newly established Islamic Republic and Saddam Hussein’s regime, which lasted from 1980 to 1988]. The blare of sirens, missiles, bombings, people dying in the streets – it was traumatizing. War is a nightmare that leaves an indelible mark.
The longer we wait for an Israeli strike, the worse the anxiety becomes. If the strike had already happened, whether at a nuclear facility, a military base, or a city, at least we’d have something concrete to face. The uncertainty is unbearable. I just hope Israel gets it over with soon.
What are the views of Iranians toward Israel today?
Many Iranians still support Israel, but not out of love for the country. It’s because they hate the Iranian regime.
After October 7, many Iranians backed Israel’s right to defend itself from terrorism. But as the war in Gaza has dragged on and the death toll of civilians, women and children has risen, I’ve seen many of those same people start to change their minds. Especially now that Israel is threatening to strike Iran.
Various Iranians have also tweeted celebrating the killing of [Hezbollah leader] Hassan Nasrallah – again, out of spite to the regime. But the expansion of the war with Hezbollah in Lebanon has affected many in Iran, possibly because of a sentimental attachment to Beirut that we have in our collective imagination, in our movies and literature.
What was your reaction to Netanyahu’s address to the Iranian people last week?
[On September 30, Prime Minister Netanyahu delivered a video message to Iranians, saying that “Israel stands with them” and “they will be free sooner than people think.”]
I thought it was a farce. Who does he think he is? We don’t need his help. We’ve been fighting this regime on our own for years, and we’ll continue to do so without outside intervention.
There is a minority faction of Iranians, both inside the country and outside, who side with crown prince Reza Pahlavi [the son of the shah deposed in the 1979 Islamic Revolution]. That faction of royalists are also pro-Israel and pro-Netanyahu. They want Israel to assassinate the Iranian supreme leader and strike all the infrastructure in the country to cause the regime to collapse.
But it’s really a minority of people, who do not realize that citizens will ultimately pay the price for the destruction.
How do Iranians feel about the regime’s support for proxy militias across the Middle East?
We’re strongly against. The regime wastes money that should be spent on infrastructure and our daily needs. Instead, it funds Hezbollah and other proxies. Iranians are struggling to survive – why should we go hungry while our government sends weapons to Hezbollah, the Houthis, or Hamas? The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps controls much of our economy.
[Analysts believe the IRGC has built an economic empire across various sectors in Iran, often using front companies.]
And the US lets other countries get away with crimes while it imposes sanctions on Iran for its nuclear program, but at the same time, it allows the children of IRGC officials to study at American universities.
The Islamic Republic has splintered into various factions. There is a pro-Pezeshkian reformist faction, a pro-Russian faction, a conservative faction, and others. They are all fighting each other for power.
The regime today is deeply unpopular. In the last presidential election, 60% of voters abstained, which was a deliberate move to show their rejection of the system. Among those who did vote, many were public sector workers who feared losing their jobs if they didn’t. Therefore, it is fair to assume that opposition to the regime far exceeds 60%.
US sanctions have crippled our economy. People are barely making ends meet, and the war is making things worse. The Iranian currency is highly unstable, and workers strikes are becoming more frequent [most recently by oil and gas workers and nurses]. We have been backed into a corner.
The fact that the regime allowed Pezeshkian to run for president signals that it wanted a reformist, because of the enormous gap between the rulers and the people. If it wants to retain power in the region, the Iranian regime needs to resolve its domestic problems first. We are truly at a breaking point as a society.
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