Inside storyArab diplomat: Hamas weaker than ever, but has little to lose

Hamas fears Trump will allow Israel to resume Gaza war after 1st phase of hostage deal

Sources familiar with talks say Hamas compromising on terms of IDF withdrawal but still insisting on permanent ceasefire, fearing deal made under Biden could collapse under Trump

Jacob Magid

Jacob Magid is The Times of Israel's US bureau chief

Former US president Donald Trump poses for photos with family members of Hamas hostage Edan Alexander, after visiting the gravesite of Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson in New York, October 7, 2024. (AP Photo/ Yuki Iwamura)
Former US president Donald Trump poses for photos with family members of Hamas hostage Edan Alexander, after visiting the gravesite of Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson in New York, October 7, 2024. (AP Photo/ Yuki Iwamura)

WASHINGTON — Hamas is concerned that US President-elect Donald Trump will allow Israel to resume fighting in Gaza at the completion of the first phase of the three-stage ceasefire that is currently in advanced negotiations, four sources familiar with the matter told The Times of Israel.

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said last week that the Biden administration is working to secure a deal by the end of December, but this would mean Trump would be responsible for seeing through the first six-week phase and beyond.

Trump said again this week that he wants the war in Gaza to end, but an Israeli official told The Times of Israel that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes he’ll have more flexibility under Trump to resume fighting after the first phase than he would under Biden.

Hamas has made the same assessment and is accordingly seeking assurances that Israel will not restart the war after the first phase has been completed, according to two Arab diplomats, an Israeli official and a US official familiar with the talks.

The nature of the ceasefire deal is the main issue of contention in the talks, with Hamas demanding a permanent end to the fighting along with the withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza, while Israel is seeking a temporary pause during which some of the hostages would be released followed by a resumption of its fighting in order to finish dismantling Hamas’s military and governing capabilities.

“If we finish the war now, Hamas will return, recover and rebuild itself and attack us again… we don’t want to return to this [situation],” Netanyahu said last week.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) meets with US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan in Jerusalem on December 12, 2024. (Amos Ben Gershom/GPO)

In May, Netanyahu authorized a three-phased framework that sought to bridge the gaps between Israel and Hamas, while also providing some ambiguity on the transition from one phase to another in order to satisfy both sides.

US, Qatari and Egyptian mediators have since worked to get the first phase of the deal in motion with an initial ceasefire that would see the release of the remaining living female, elderly and wounded hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.

During this first phase, the sides would be mandated to hold negotiations regarding the terms of the second and third phases of the ceasefire, when the remaining living hostages and the bodies of slain captives would be released, respectively.

Negotiations have progressed significantly in recent weeks, with Hamas agreeing to reengage with mediators after a months-long impasse, according to the two Arab diplomats, an Israeli official and a US official familiar with the talks.

Critically, the terror group has shown flexibility regarding the terms of the IDF withdrawal from Gaza, indicating it is prepared to allow Israeli troops to remain in the key Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors during the first phase of the deal after long demanding their immediate pullout from those routes — along the Gaza-Egypt border and bisecting the enclave, respectively — the Arab and Israeli officials said.

Hamas is at its weakest position yet and “we told them that the longer they wait, the worse the terms will be,” one of the Arab diplomats said, explaining the shift in the terror group’s stance.

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump (left) greets Andrey Koslov, an Israeli who was taken hostage by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, and rescued by Israeli special forces on June 8, 2024, at the Israeli American Council National Summit, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Hamas has survived an unrelenting Israeli military campaign, but its military infrastructure has been effectively dismantled, and the support it had been receiving from the Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance” has all but dissipated over the past two months amid dizzying developments in Lebanon and Syria.

But that doesn’t mean Hamas will be prepared to accept a deal on any terms, the Arab diplomat clarified, adding that the group now has a lot less to lose and is still holding 100 hostages who won’t be released in full unless Israel agrees to a permanent ceasefire.

Contrary to reporting in American and Arabic press, though, progress in the talks has not extended to Hamas’s transfer of a long-sought list to the mediators consisting of the names of hostages it is prepared to release in the ceasefire’s first stage, the two Arab diplomats said.

Israel has sought the release of at least 33 hostages during this phase, while Hamas has maintained that it doesn’t have that number of living captives who fall into the “humanitarian” categories of women, elderly and sick captives, an Israeli official said.

With these hurdles still standing in the way, the second Arab diplomat said Biden officials’ privately shared desires to secure an agreement this week were unlikely to be actualized.

And even with a list from Hamas, it is unclear whether either side is prepared to move or compromise on the nature of the ceasefire, the four sources said.

The hostages were among 251 people taken captive during Hamas’s brutal October, 7, 2023, assault on southern Israel that also killed some 1,200 people.

It is believed that 96 of the 251 hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7 remain in Gaza, including the bodies of at least 34 confirmed dead by the IDF.

Hamas released 105 civilians during a weeklong truce in late November, 2023, and four hostages were released before that. Eight hostages have been rescued by troops alive, and the bodies of 38 hostages have also been recovered, including three mistakenly killed by the military as they tried to escape their captors.

Hamas is also holding two Israeli civilians who entered the Strip in 2014 and 2015, as well as the bodies of two IDF soldiers who were killed in 2014.

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