From the Liveblog of
Monday, May 20, 2024
IDF estimates 950,000 have evacuated Rafah, Hamas still capable of firing rockets at central Israel
Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian is The Times of Israel's military correspondent
The Israeli military estimates that some 950,000 Palestinians have evacuated the Rafah area in the southern Gaza Strip, as troops operate in the eastern part of the city.
Some 300,000 to 400,000 civilians remain in Rafah, mostly in the coastal area and some parts in the center of the city, according to information seen by The Times of Israel.
The IDF had issued an evacuation warning for the eastern part of Rafah earlier this month, where more than a million Palestinians were sheltering before it pushed into the area. That evacuation zone had only some 150,000 Palestinians in it, meaning many civilians from other parts of Rafah, where the IDF has not yet operated, evacuated on their own.
Palestinian civilians are now largely concentrated in the al-Mawasi area, designated by the IDF as a “humanitarian zone,” on the Strip’s coast, and in central Gaza, in areas where ground forces have not yet operated. There is also a substantial civilian population in the coastal part of Rafah and in some areas of northern Gaza.
The military says it learned from past experiences when it came to evacuating the population in Rafah, which was carried out much faster than the United States had predicted.
Among the moves to enable the evacuation, the al-Mawasi humanitarian zone was expanded to accommodate more civilians, damaged water lines were fixed by Palestinians, field hospitals were moved to the zone, and aid deliveries are also being focused there.
The IDF believes that some Hamas operatives and members of other terror groups fled with the population to the humanitarian zone, as there are no Israeli checkpoints. Still, many gunmen have stayed behind in Rafah to fight the Israeli army.
Rafah is seen by the IDF as Hamas’s last major stronghold in Gaza, and where four of its battalions are located. Two more Hamas battalions remain in central Gaza, in the Nuseirat and Deir al-Balah camps.
The city in southern Gaza is one of the last locations where Hamas is believed by the IDF to have major rocket stockpiles.
The terror group is not believed by the IDF to have any rocket manufacturing capabilities amid the war, with the military taking out its major factories in other areas of Gaza.
The IDF believes that Hamas has the capability to launch rocket attacks on central Israel from the Rafah area, and when troops advance further into the city, the terror group is likely to carry out such an attack.
Currently, the IDF has not pushed further than the Brazil neighborhood of eastern Rafah.
The IDF is still maintaining control of the Rafah Border Crossing with Egypt. At the same time, there are ongoing operations along the so-called Philadelphi Corridor, separating Egypt and Gaza.
The military says it has located dozens of tunnel shafts and “a number of significant underground routes” in the eastern Rafah area that are currently under investigation or being prepared to be demolished.
It has not, however, detailed how many of the tunnels cross in Egypt. In the past, Hamas used such tunnels to smuggle in weapons and supplies.
More than 130 gunmen have been killed by troops so far amid the operation in eastern Rafah, the IDF says.
