Survey shows continued deadlock; 62% think Netanyahu’s promised ‘total victory’ will never come

A Channel 12 survey ahead of the October 27 elections shows the current Zionist opposition parties winning 56 seats, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc at 50 seats, the centrist, tentatively named Zionist Home at 4, and the mainly Arab parties Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al at 5 seats each. Since Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel’s Zionist Home has indicated that it would enter an anti-Netanyahu Zionist coalition, this puts the Zionist opposition bloc at 60 seats, just short of a majority in the 120-member Knesset.

The various parties score as follows in the first scenario: Likud: 23 seats; Eisenkot’s Yashar: 23. Bennett’s Together, 14; The Democrats 10; Yisrael Beytenu 9; United Torah Judaism 8; Shas 7; Otzma Yehudit 7; Religious Zionism 5; Ra’am 5; Hadash Ta’al 5; Zionist Home 4.

These numbers are broadly consistent with other recent surveys.

A second question deals with a possible scenario in which current Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz joins forces with the Arab party Ra’am, as is being mooted.

In that scenario, the numbers are unchanged, except for The Democrats losing a seat and Ra’am gaining one, meaning the Zionist opposition bloc slips to 55, the Netanyahu bloc stays at 50, Zionist Home stays at 4, and Ra’am rises to 6.

Segalovitz has indicated that he would only join Ra’am if it recognizes Israel as a Jewish and democratic state and supports civil service – an alternative to the military draft – for Arab citizens. Were this to happen — a very big if — and were the Zionist opposition parties then to consent to including Ra’am in a coalition — another non-given — the anti-Netanyahu bloc would rise to 65 seats, giving it a solid majority. (The Naftali Bennett-led 2021-22 coalition did include Ra’am, but Bennett has said he would not bring Ra’am into a coalition again, and the front-running Netanyahu challenger Gadi Eisenkot has taken a similar stance.)

However, the minimal change in outcome would suggest the survey likely did not spell it out to respondents that, in the second scenario, Ra’am would have recognized Israel as a Jewish state.

Channel 12 also surveys voters’ preferred prime minister. Netanyahu and Eisenkot are level — each preferred by 37% of respondents. Netanyahu is preferred to Bennett by 38% to 37%.

The surveys also found that 62% of respondents do not believe Israel will ever achieve Netanyahu’s promised “total victory” in Gaza, compared to 25% who do.

Large majorities also do not believe that Hamas or Hezbollah will ever agree to disarm — by 63% to 23% as regards Hezbollah; 72% to 18% as regards Hamas.

Separately, 27% believe the threat posed by Iran has grown as a consequence of Israeli policy, 28% that it is unchanged, and 35% that it has lessened. A narrow majority — 51% — favors renewing the war against Iran, with 34% opposed.

Culminating this line of questioning, the poll finds 62% do not believe Netanyahu has “led Israel to victory after three years of war,” compared to 28% who believe he has.

Fifty-seven percent of respondents give Defense Minister Israel Katz a “bad” grade for his performance, compared to 34% who rate it “good.” And 47% say Katz’s attempt to oust IDF Central Command chief Maj. Gen. Avi Bluth was inappropriate, while 17% say it was appropriate.

The survey, by Midgam, with 503 respondents, has a 4.4% margin of error.