Witkoff warned US lawmakers that Iranian response to Israeli strike could be mass casualty event – report

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff arrives for a signing ceremony at the Royal Palace in Doha on May 14, 2025. (Karim Jaafar/AFP)
US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff arrives for a signing ceremony at the Royal Palace in Doha on May 14, 2025. (Karim Jaafar/AFP)

US President Donald Trump’s special Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff told Senate Republicans last Thursday, in a closed-door briefing, that if Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Iranian Republic’s response could be a mass casualty event, Axios reports.

Witkoff — who is expected in Oman on Sunday for another round in the US’s ongoing talks with Iran to reach a deal concerning the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program — told the lawmakers that Israeli military strikes are on the table if the negotiations fail, the report says, citing a US official and a source with direct knowledge.

The presidential envoy raised the topic of Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, the sources said, and claimed that the US is concerned Israel’s air defenses could be overwhelmed by an attack involving hundreds of missiles.

In October 2024, Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel, though much of the attack was thwarted by air defenses in Israel and with the help of regional allies and the US. A similar attack in April 2024, which also used drones and cruise missiles, was also largely foiled.

Axios reports, citing a US official, that since the October attack, Iran has ramped up production of ballistic missiles to some 50 per month. The Islamic Republic’s goal is to produce more missiles than Israel has interceptors, the official says.

Israelis take cover inside a bomb shelter in central Israel during an Iranian missile attack, October 1, 2024. (Dor Pazuelo/Flash90)

Several reports over the last day have said US officials think Israel could be preparing to strike Iran in the coming days, even as US and Iranian representatives are set to continue talks this Sunday in Oman on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.

However, the US ambassador to Jerusalem has stressed he doesn’t believe Israel would strike without a green light from US President Donald Trump, who today reiterated his call for Israel to hold off on such an attack as negotiations continue. The military’s Home Front Command has also said, in response to “rumors,” that there is no change to the civilian guidelines at this time.

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