From the Liveblog of
Monday, September 30, 2013
Yadlin: Israel may yet come out on top
Times of Israel military correspondent Mitch Ginsburg reports that Amos Yadlin, the former head of Military Iintelligence and current director of the Institute for National Security Studies, wrote on Sunday in an INSS journal that while the Iranian charm offensive was likely “an exercise in deceit,” the negotiations between the US and Iran could go in three directions, “two of which could be positive for Israel.”
The first, while surely not fulfilling all of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s demands — no enrichment; the removal of all the enriched uranium from Iran; and the suspension of all activity at the underground facility at Fordo and at the plutonium reactor in Arak — would, nonetheless, be considered good if it could “keep Iran far from the bomb,” or at least significantly farther than where it stands today and with far tighter supervision, thereby minimizing the threat of a sprint to nuclear arms.
The second, “a resounding failure” in the negotiations would “grant legitimacy” to what Yadlin diplomatically termed “other actions designed to stop the project.”
The most significant challenge, though, is preventing what Yadlin called “a bad agreement” — the sort that entails partial measures from the Iranians in exchange for economic succor, and keeps Tehran within sprinting distance of the bomb.
“It is important to understand, influence, and if possible reach a conclusion on what America’s policy will be if the negotiations fail or the agreement is violated in the future, and how effective levers of influence on Iran — sanctions and a credible military option — can be preserved, as only they are capable of changing the Iranian behavior,” Yadlin wrote.
