New daily COVID cases top 14,000 as transmission rate continues to rise

More than 14,000 new COVID cases were confirmed in Israel on Monday, according to Health Ministry statistics released Tuesday morning, the highest figure in more than a month.

With 14,460 new cases, the number of current active COVID cases rose to 57,152, with 786 of those hospitalized, 320 of them in serious condition and 138 on ventilators.

The R number reproduction rate hit 1.33, the latest statistics showed, up from 0.9 a week earlier and the highest figure since January.

Prof. Gili Rahav, the director of infectious diseases at Sheba Medical Center, said she believes the rise in new cases is driven in part by the BA.2 variant, a subvariant of Omicron.

“There are enough people who still haven’t been sick and therefore could still be infected” by the variant, Rahav told Kan public radio.

In addition, she said, many in the general public have lowered their guard “because they think it’s behind us, but it’s still not behind us,” leading to more infections.

Since the outbreak of the pandemic in March 2020, close to 3.8 million Israelis, about 40% of the population, have tested positive for COVID. Rahav said she believes the figure is closer to 50%, but noted that while those who have had Omicron are likely to be protected from the current variants, “we know that those who had Delta or Alpha are certainly not protected.”

Few COVID restrictions remain in Israel at the tail end of the fifth wave: vaccination proof is no longer required for entry to any events, gatherings are not limited by size and unvaccinated tourists are allowed to visit. The major restriction still in place is the indoor mask mandate, which is enforced to varying degrees. After a COVID consultation meeting last week, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said that indoor masks will remain in place for the moment, and the issue will be reexamined before Passover.

Health officials have expressed concern over rising rates following the holiday of Purim last week, and ahead of Passover, which tends to be marked by extended family gatherings.

At the moment, serious cases appear to be holding steady, although when new cases rise, hospitalizations tend to lag slightly behind.

“I’m not optimistic, the figures are high and don’t include Purim parties yet,” a health official told Kan. “I expect that within a week, the high-risk population will [begin] needing hospitalization.”

Dr. Arnon Shahar, a member of the government’s COVID advisory team, said he believes serious cases will soon be on the rise.

“It won’t be a surprise if we see a rise in serious cases too, because new infections are rising,” Shahar told Army Radio. “It’s a challenge, but we’re in a different place entirely from the start of the fifth wave,” he added, noting that there is no indication that the BA.2 subvariant is more dangerous.

Since the start of the outbreak, 10,431 Israelis with COVID have died. Over the past week, 15 people died, a 75% drop from deaths a week earlier.