Poll: Lapid could be PM if elections were held today

Yesh Atid leader and former finance minister Yair Lapid would be well-placed to form Israel’s next coalition if Knesset elections were held today, according to a Channel 10 survey released Friday.

The survey, overseen by leading statistician Camil Fuchs, showed Lapid’s centrist opposition party Yesh Atid winning 27 of the 120 Knesset seats — up from its current total of 11 — and outstripping Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud as Israel’s biggest party. This would theoretically leave Lapid strongly placed to form a majority coalition and become prime minister.

Asked directly who they prefer as prime minister, however, Netanyahu outpolled Lapid by 27% to 15%.

The poll found that Likud would win 23 seats, down from its current total of 30, while the right-wing Orthodox Jewish Home party and the Joint (Arab) List would win 12 seats apiece. Jewish Home now has eight Knesset members while the Joint List has 13.

Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu party would win 10 Knesset seats, up from the six it currently has.

The biggest loser was the senior opposition faction Zionist Union, which comprises Labor and Tzipi Livni’s Hatnua party. The survey found that Zionist Union would plummet from its current 24 seats to just eight, putting it on level pegging with the ultra-Orthodox Shas party and giving it just one seat more than Likud offshoot Kulanu, headed by the current finance minister Moshe Kahlon, on seven.

United Torah Judaism would gain one seat to also give it seven, while the left-wing Meretz, which trails the list, remained steady with six Knesset seats.

But while Israel’s political system dictates that Lapid would likely be able to form the next government if the survey is correct, Netanyahu still enjoys the public’s support for prime minister.

Of the respondents, 27 percent said they see Netanyahu as best fit to be premier, far higher than the 15% who supported Lapid. But none of the candidates struck a chord with almost a quarter of the respondents: 22% said that not one of the party leaders was fit for the job.

Former defense minister Moshe Ya’alon, who was ousted from his post earlier this year to make way for Liberman in a coalition deal, was chosen as the best candidate for prime minister by 9% of respondents, despite his absence from politics, while Jewish Home leader Naftali Bennett had the support of 7%.

Of the options on the left, just 5% of respondents said Zionist Union leader Isaac Herzog was the best choice for prime minister. Only 4% put their faith in former premier and Labor chair Ehud Barak, who has in recent weeks been vocal in his criticism of Netanyahu.

Just under one-third of respondents — 31% — said they had yet to decide who they would vote for.

The survey was held over the past week, polling 615 Israelis – 515 Jews and 100 Arabs. No margin of error was cited.