Azerbaijan plane was likely downed by Russian air defenses, sources say
Experts and officials with knowledge of probe say evidence points to passenger jet being hit by Pantsir system before crash that killed 38; Moscow warns against premature ‘hypotheses’
An Azerbaijan Airlines flight that crashed in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, killing 38 people, was downed by a Russian air defense system, four sources in Azerbaijan with knowledge of the investigation told Reuters.
Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 came down near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan after diverting from an area of Russia in which Moscow has used air defense systems against Ukrainian drone strikes in recent months.
The Embraer passenger jet had flown hundreds of miles off its scheduled route from Azerbaijan’s Baku to Grozny, in Russia’s southern Chechnya region, when it crashed on the opposite shore of the Caspian Sea. Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said that preliminary information indicated that the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird strike led to an emergency on board.
Officials did not explain why it had crossed the sea, but the crash happened after Ukrainian drone strikes this month hit Chechnya. The nearest Russian airport on the plane’s flight path was closed on Wednesday morning.
One of the Azerbaijani sources familiar with the Azerbaijani investigation into the crash told Reuters that preliminary results showed the plane was struck by a Russian Pantsir-S air defense system, and its communications were paralyzed by electronic warfare systems on the approach into Grozny.
“No one claims that it was done on purpose. However, taking into account the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft,” the source said.
Moscow pushed back as experts claimed that evidence pointed to the plane having been hit by air defenses.
“It would be wrong to make any hypotheses before the investigation’s conclusions,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
Kazakhstan’s parliamentary Speaker Maulen Ashimbayev also warned against rushing to conclusions based on pictures of the plane’s fragments, describing the allegations of air defense fire as unfounded and “unethical.”
Other officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have similarly avoided comment on a possible cause of the crash, saying it will be up to investigators to determine it.
Videos of the crash site posted on social media and verified by Reuters showed what appeared to be shrapnel damage to the wreckage of the tail section of the plane.
Aviation security firm Osprey Flight Solutions said in an alert to airlines on Wednesday that footage of the wreckage and the circumstances around the air space in southwest Russia indicated the possibility that the airliner was hit by some form of anti-aircraft fire.
Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said that the company had issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.
“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson wrote online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided.”
Russia’s Dagestan and Chechnya regions have been targeted by Ukrainian weaponized military drones this month, with Russian air defenses activated in response, Osprey said.
Earlier on Wednesday, the Russian defense ministry had reported the downing of 59 Ukrainian drones over several regions, it said.
Some were reportedly downed in closed air space over regions bordering Ukraine, including the Sea of Azov. Flight operations were reportedly temporarily suspended at Russia’s Kazan Airport due to the activity.
In addition, publicly available ADS-B flight tracking data shows that the aircraft experienced GPS jamming throughout its flight over southwest Russia, the alert said.
Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for risks, said that the analysis of the fragments of the crashed plane indicate with a 90-99% probability that it was hit by a surface-to-air missile.
According to Kazakh officials, those aboard the plane included 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhs and three Kyrgyzstan nationals. Russia’s Emergencies Ministry on Thursday flew nine Russian survivors to Moscow for treatment.
In Brussels, NATO called for a full investigation into the cause of the crash.
“Our thoughts and prayers are with the families and victims of Azerbaijan Airlines flight J28243,” NATO spokesperson Farah Dakhlallah said on X.
“We wish those injured in the crash a speedy recovery and call for a full investigation.”
