AnalysisAfter Oct. 7, Madrid recognized Palestine, condemned Israel

In long-shot wartime proposal, Spain and PA push for reprise of 1991 Madrid peace summit

Pledging to meet by end of year, both players seek relevance as the Gaza conflict rages on; but experts say that with neither Israeli nor US participation, prospects are poor

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, left, and Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez arrive for a joint statement at the Moncloa palace in Madrid, Spain, September 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Paul White)
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, left, and Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez arrive for a joint statement at the Moncloa palace in Madrid, Spain, September 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Paul White)

MADRID — On a two-day official visit to Madrid last month, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas secured Spain’s commitment to host a bilateral Spanish-PA summit by year’s end.

Abbas was seeking the support of key Spanish leaders, including Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and King Felipe VI, in mediating future Israeli-Palestinian peace talks that would mirror collaborative peace efforts held in the Spanish capital three decades ago.

While no date has been set for the summit, the timing of Abbas’s visit was critical, occurring just before the 79th United Nations General Assembly in New York, where the ongoing Gaza conflict dominated discussions.

It also followed a September 13 meeting in Madrid between Spain, members of the Arab-Islamic Contact Group on Gaza (made up of the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, the PA, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Turkey, Indonesia, Nigeria and the secretaries general of the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation), and European officials. The meeting was aimed at advancing a two-state solution — an approach rooted in the 1991 Madrid Conference and the succeeding Oslo Accords.

Israel was notably absent from this meeting.

Although the peace process has been moribund for years, Spain believes that recent regional developments have brought renewed urgency to these talks. The September 13 conference, the second of its kind following a similar gathering in May, came after Spain’s recognition of a Palestinian state alongside Ireland and Norway.

But Israel’s exclusion from these discussions raises questions about the viability of such efforts moving forward.

From left front, Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev, Spanish premier Felipe Gonzales and US president George H.W. Bush pose in front of delegates at the end of the first session of the Middle East peace conference held in the Palacio Real in Madrid, Spain, Oct. 30, 1991. Behind Bush are Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Shamir, left, and US Secretary of State James Baker III, right. The others are unidentified. (AP Photo/Jerome Delay)

Historical echoes and present realities

The 1991 Madrid Conference, hosted by Spain and co-sponsored by the United States and the Soviet Union, marked a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern diplomacy. After the conference, multilateral negotiations took place between Israel, a joint Palestinian-Jordanian delegation, and Arab countries including Syria and Lebanon.

But due to vastly different regional dynamics — such as waning US influence and a right-leaning Israeli government far from the peace-oriented leadership of the 1990s — such an outcome would be unlikely today.

“Neither the current [Israeli] leadership under [Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu nor its predecessors have been particularly inclined towards peace,” said Ghaith Al-Omari, who was an adviser to the Palestinian Authority’s negotiating team between 1999 and 2001.

On the eve of the Peace Conference in Madrid, an estimated 50,000 predominantly left-wing Israelis gathered at Tel Aviv’s City Hall, Israel, on Oct. 26, 1991, to encourage Israel’s delegation to the Madrid peace talks to reach peace with it’s neighbours. (AP Photo/Staff/Harnik)

The October 7, 2023, massacre, in which some 1,200 men, women and children in Israel were killed and 251 kidnapped by Hamas-led terrorists in a shock assault, has only deepened regional tensions, escalating violence and distrust.

“These prevailing sentiments suggest greater Israeli security demands, which diminish the prospects for compromise,” Al-Omari told The Times of Israel.

Skepticism surrounding the initiative

Despite Spain’s long-term advocacy for a two-state solution, experts question the viability of renewed peace talks and doubt Madrid’s effectiveness as a mediator.

Spanish society has seen “generational change and expanding polarization,” said Spanish political analyst Daniel Bashandeh.

At left: Spanish political analyst Daniel Bashandeh. (Courtesy) At right: Former PA negotiations adviser Ghaith Al-Omari. (Courtesy of the Washington Institute)

Rising antisemitism has become a major concern for local Jewish communities and Israeli expatriates, reversing a recent decline. Several organizations have urged Spanish authorities to address this increase, expressing concerns that some prominent political figures have aligned with antisemitic groups.

Relations between Madrid and Jerusalem have also deteriorated in recent months, particularly after Spain’s vocal condemnation of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza seeking to neutralize Hamas as a threat and secure the release of the hostages following the October 7 onslaught, and reached a new low on Monday after Sanchez urged the EU to suspend its free trade agreement with Israel over the war in Gaza and recently launched campaign in Lebanon.

Spain stopped selling weapons to Israel in the immediate aftermath of the October 7 massacre, and recently urged the rest of the world to do the same after the accidental injury of several UNIFIL peacekeepers who hadn’t evacuated a battle zone in southern Lebanon after being warned by the IDF.

In retaliation for Spain’s criticism and its recognition of Palestine, its ambassador to Israel was recalled in November, and Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz publicly rebuked Spanish officials and restricted services at Spain’s Jerusalem consulate for Palestinians in the West Bank. Bilateral ties worsened in June when Spain became the first EU country to back South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice.

So, while Spain can “facilitate and advance a two-state solution,” its influence is limited as it “lacks the leverage to drive normalization,” Bashandeh told The Times of Israel.

Members of the Palestinian contingency of the Jordan-Palestinian delegation arrive in Madrid waving branches of elms as a sign of peace, as they arrive at the Palacio Real, in Madrid, October 28, 1991, for the start of the peace conference. (AP Photo/Stf/Shing)

Skepticism also extends to the Palestinian side. Al-Omari described Spain’s peace push as “well-intentioned but delusional and lacking value,” citing the growing complexity of the conflict and Abbas’s attempts to “prove his relevance” as Hamas challenges his popularity in the West Bank.

Bashandeh also highlighted the fractured Palestinian leadership, noting that “the challenge of identifying a legitimate authority complicates negotiations and could influence Spain’s role in Middle East diplomacy.”

Navigating a path forward

Despite the strained relations with Jerusalem and geopolitical challenges, Bashandeh says Madrid still wants to be a “constructive third party for future talks,” suggesting that the Spanish administration is looking to the 2020 Abraham Accords as a potential model.

While the positions of these moderate Arab signatories may have hardened due to Israel’s ongoing military actions in Gaza, Lebanon and elsewhere, Al-Omari asserts they “do not preclude constructive engagement” and can demonstrate a way forward, even now.

Experts still see this as a long shot.

Without stronger support or involvement from key regional actors, the revival of meaningful peace talks appears unlikely. Al-Omari points to past summits that were all doomed to fail.

“Diplomacy requires realism. While Spain’s efforts are commendable, only grounded, pragmatic steps — not grand gestures — will move the peace process forward,” he said.

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