A quick note on the claims of so many parties that they’re all losing

So what’s happening with the claims by so many parties, especially on the right, that they’re in “dire straits” and voters aren’t turning out?

If Arab turnout is at record lows and the last reported general turnout figure, as of a couple hours ago, shows that overall turnout isn’t much lower than in the recent past, then it follows that Jewish turnout must be up.

Is it mathematically possible Jewish turnout is up, but all Jewish-majority parties are somehow falling behind everyone else?

A quick recap: Blue and White is accusing the Labor party of cutting into its voting base and reducing its likelihood of being able to topple Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Labor, in turn, is accusing Blue and White of using it as a prop for its own “dire straits” — or “gevalt” in the Israeli slang — campaign.

The Union of Right-Wing Parties is accusing Zehut of pulling away its religious-right youth, and of New Right of drawing away its more liberal wing; New Right is warning it is dropping below the 3.25-percent electoral threshold because URWP is running fake videos pretending that its leaders are urging supporters to back URWP and Likud is warning that a vote for New Right will end up bringing Blue and White to power. Likud, indeed, is saying it is in an “emergency situation” and is about to lose the election to Blue and White; Yisrael Beytenu is complaining New Right’s campaign warning it could drop below the electoral threshold is “outright lies.” And so on and so forth.

Everyone seems to be trying to galvanize a soporific base by claiming it is about to lose the election. If early turnout figures are right, most if not all of them are lying.

— Haviv Rettig Gur

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