Ceasefire deal backed by only 20% of Netanyahu coalition voters, snap poll finds

A snap Channel 12 poll finds Israelis divided over the ceasefire framework.

Asked if they support or oppose “the arrangement that has been drawn up as regards Lebanon,” 37% say they support it, 32% say they oppose it and 31% say they don’t know.

Among those who say they support Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, however, only 20% back the deal, while 45% oppose it and 35% don’t know.

Among opposition voters, 50% back the deal, 22% oppose it and 28% don’t know.

Asked how they consider the war with Hezbollah to have ended, 20% say Israel won, 50% say it ended without a clear victor, 19% say Hezbollah won and 11% don’t know.

Asked how long the ceasefire will hold, 24% say “for years,” 28% say “a few months,” 30% say it will “collapse after a short time” and 18% don’t know.

Channel 12 also asks people who they would vote for if elections were held today, and notes that the unhappiness on the right over the ceasefire has not significantly impacted voting preferences, with the balance of power between the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu blocs unchanged since its previous poll.

The bloc of parties loyal to Netanyahu score a total of 51 seats in the 120-member Knesset, the opposition bloc has 64, and the Arab alliance Hadash-Ta’al holds the other five.

The survey scores the parties as follows: Netanyahu’s Likud, 25 seats; Benny Gantz’s National Unity, 18; Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, 15; Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu, 14; Yair Golan’s The Democrats, 12; ultra-Orthodox party Shas, 9; Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, 9; ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Judaism 8; mainly Arab alliance Hadash-Ta’al, 5, and mainly Arab party Ra’am 5.

Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party, new Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar’s party and the Arab Balad party are all below the threshold for Knesset seats.

Were former prime minister Naftali Bennett, who today criticized the emerging ceasefire deal, to return to politics with a new party, it would win 23 seats and Likud would go down to 23.

The survey polled 510 respondents and has a 4.4% margin of error.