More TV polls predict opposition winning majority if elections held, Gantz’s party the largest

A pair of television polls that aired this evening say Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-religious coalition would lose its majority and slump to new 52 seats if new elections were held, the latest sign of discontent over the government’s judicial overhaul plans and handling of various hot-button issues.

The Channel 12 news survey said former defense minister Benny Gantz’s National Unity party would be the largest with 29 seats, followed by Netanyahu’s Likud with 24, opposition leader Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid with 18, the far-right Religious Zionism alliance with 11, ultra-Orthodox Shas with 10, United Torah Judaism with seven, and the right-wing secularist Yisrael Beytenu with six.

The Islamist Ra’am, Hadash-Ta’al, and left-wing Meretz all received five seats each, while the Labor party fell short of the minimum threshold, the first time it would fail to enter the Knesset since Israel’s founding.

The Channel 13 news poll had near-identical figures, but, unlike its competitor, polled Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit separately, rather than as a joint slate, following their split after the November elections. Between them, they were predicted to get 11 seats, with seven going to Religious Zionism and four to Otzma Yehudit.

Overall, both networks had the parties now in opposition that composed the previous coalition winning 63 seats — enough for a majority — and the current coalition 52. Hadash-Ta’al is not aligned with either bloc.

The Channel 12 poll, conducted by Manu Geva, included 512 respondents and had a 4.4 percent margin of error, while the Channel 13 survey was done by Kamil Fuchs and had 601 respondents with a 3.7% margin of error.