ToI poll: Blocs tied at 53, both far from majority; 67% of opposition voters say bloc must agree on leader

The pro- and anti-Benjamin Netanyahu blocs are tied about a month away from Israel’s October 27 election, and are both far from winning a majority in the Knesset, according to a poll published today by The Times of Israel’s Hebrew sister site, Zman Yisrael.

In addition, the poll finds that two-thirds of opposition voters want their camp to agree on a consensus candidate for prime minister.

The poll shows the two presumed blocs tied with 53 seats each. Arab-led parties would win the remaining 14 seats — eight for the Joint List and six for Ra’am. The result leaves both blocs eight seats shy of the 61 needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

This week’s result reflects a drop for the camp opposing the prime minister, and a gain for his supporters. Last week’s poll had the anti-Netanyahu bloc with 55, compared to 51 for parties backing the premier.

Leading the poll is Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist opposition Yashar party with 23 seats, followed by Netanyahu with 21. Next come the opposition B’Yachad party led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett with 12, and the hawkish opposition Yisrael Beytenu and pro-Netanyahu Sephardi Haredi Shas party, both with 10.

Three parties would win eight seats each: The pro-Netanyahu Ashkenazi Haredi United Torah Judaism, the left-wing Democrats and the largely Arab Joint List. With six each are the far-right Otzma Yehudit and Arab-led Ra’am.

The far-right Religious Zionism-Zehut and Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party would win four seats each. Failing to enter the Knesset would be the party led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, and Benny Gantz’s Blue and White, neither of which has committed to a bloc.

In addition, the poll asks opposition voters if they want their camp to decide on a consensus candidate for prime minister. While Eisenkot is leading polls, Bennett and even Yisrael Beytenu’s Avigdor Liberman have professed that they’re running for the job.

The poll finds that 67 percent of opposition voters want the bloc to decide on a candidate, while 22% do not and the remaining 11% do not know.

The poll was conducted on September 23 and 24 by Yossi Tatika of Tatika Research & Media in collaboration with the Adgenda panel, and surveyed a total sample of 500 respondents with a margin of error of ±4.4%.

While horse-race polls are an almost daily occurrence in Israel in the months leading up to elections and are not seen as overly reliable, taken together, the surveys can often serve as a general gauge of the political climate and where the vote may be headed.