US intel doesn’t support Trump’s claim that Iran close to having missile that can hit US — sources

WASHINGTON — US President Donald Trump’s claim that Iran will soon have a missile that can hit the United States is not backed by US intelligence reports, and appears to be exaggerated, according to three sources familiar with the reports, casting doubt on part of his case for a possible attack on the Islamic Republic.

In his State of the Union address to Congress on Tuesday, Trump began making his case to the American public for why the US could launch strikes against Iran, saying Tehran was “working on missiles that will soon reach” the United States.

But there have been no changes, two sources say, to an unclassified 2025 US Defense Intelligence Agency assessment that Iran could take until 2035 to develop a “militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile” (ICBM) from its existing satellite-lofting space-launch vehicles (SLV).

The White House declines to comment.

One source says that even if China or North Korea — which closely cooperate with Iran — provide technological assistance, Iran will probably take up to eight years at the earliest to produce “something that is actually ICBM level and operational.”

The sources, who speak on condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive intelligence, say they are unaware of any US intelligence assessments that Iran is developing a missile that could soon range the US homeland but didn’t rule out the possibility of a new intelligence report they were unaware of.

The New York Times first reported that US intelligence agencies believe Iran is probably years away from having missiles that can hit the United States.