US intel reports warn Iran unlikely to ease Hormuz chokehold soon, sources say

Recent US intelligence reports warn that Iran is unlikely to open the Strait of Hormuz any time soon because its grip on the world’s most vital oil artery provides the only real leverage it has over the United States, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

The finding suggests that Tehran could continue to throttle the strait to keep energy prices high as a means of pressuring US President Donald Trump to find a quick off-ramp to the nearly five-week-long war that remains unpopular with US voters.

The reports also provide the latest indication that the war, intended to eradicate Iran’s military strength, may actually increase its regional sway by showing Tehran’s ability to threaten the key waterway.

Iran, the recent intelligence reports warn, is unlikely to surrender that leverage any time soon, according to the three sources. They decline to elaborate on which agencies produced the assessments.

“It is certainly the case that now that Iran has tasted its power and leverage over the strait, it won’t soon give it up,” says one of the sources. All three requested anonymity to discuss the intelligence reports.

“In the attempt to try to prevent Iran from developing a weapon of mass destruction, the US handed Iran a weapon of mass disruption,” says Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, a conflict-prevention organization.

Tehran, Vaez says, understands its ability to drive world energy markets through its chokehold on the strait “is much more potent than even a nuclear weapon.”

A White House official, who requested anonymity, says Trump is “confident that the strait will be open very soon” and has been clear that Iran would not be allowed to regulate waterway traffic after the war.

But the official notes that Trump also has said that other countries “have far more at stake in preventing this outcome” than the US.

The CIA did not immediately respond to a request for comment, Reuters says.