Voters in German state of Saxony-Anhalt go to polls, with far-right AfD the clear frontrunner

A sign held up as Ulrich Siegmund, top candidate in the Saxony-Anhalt state election for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, addresses a campaign event in Magdeburg, eastern Germany, on September 5, 2026, one day before regional elections in the eastern federal state of Saxony-Anhalt. (Ronny HARTMANN/AFP)
A sign held up as Ulrich Siegmund, top candidate in the Saxony-Anhalt state election for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, addresses a campaign event in Magdeburg, eastern Germany, on September 5, 2026, one day before regional elections in the eastern federal state of Saxony-Anhalt. (Ronny HARTMANN/AFP)

Voters in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt go to the polls in a closely watched election that could see the Alternative for Germany (AfD) become the first far-right party to take power at a state level since World War II.

Under the 35-year-old leader Ulrich Siegmund, the party has been polling comfortably ahead for months, and there is a genuine chance the AfD could take an absolute majority on this evening, particularly if several smaller parties fail to clear Germany’s 5 percent threshold to enter parliament.

The vote is being closely watched as a barometer for the government of the deeply unpopular Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has attempted to chip away at the AfD’s popularity by taking a tougher line on migration and security.

Recent surveys place the AfD at just over 40%, followed by Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU) at 23%.

An absolute majority would allow the AfD to bypass mainstream parties’ efforts to keep the party blocked out of power by refusing to work with it under a longstanding “firewall” policy.

Achieving an absolute majority is a high bar to clear in Germany’s proportional electoral system, which was designed in part to encourage coalition governments and make it difficult for one party to rule alone.

If the AfD falls short of an outright majority, a CDU-led administration under incumbent state premier Sven Schulze is the most likely outcome, though the exact shape of any coalition would depend on which parties enter.

Read more: German far-right AfD party’s projected win puts Jews between the left and a hard place

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