Polls open in German vote that could bring first far-right state government since WWII

MAGDEBURG, Germany — An eastern German region voted Sunday in an election that could bring to power the first far-right state government in the nation’s post-World War II history.

Polls opened at 8:00 am local time (0600 GMT) and some 1.7 million voters have until 6:00 pm (1600 GMT) to cast their ballots, with first projections expected shortly after.

The vote for the state legislature in Saxony-Anhalt, a region of 2.1 million people west of Berlin, has gained outsized prominence because it represents the best chance yet of a governor’s post for the far-right, anti-migration Alternative for Germany, or AfD.

That would be the biggest prize in the party’s 13-year history, at a time when there’s widespread discontent with an unpopular national government that has yet to persuade voters it can get the country’s sluggish economy moving. It would be at least a symbolic blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose center-right party has led Saxony-Anhalt for 24 years.

AfD is the biggest opposition party in Germany’s national parliament and is strongest in the formerly communist and less prosperous east, where Saxony-Anhalt is located. Its candidate for governor, Ulrich Siegmund, declared that “we will write history here.”

Despite consistently strong support, though, its chances of taking power are uncertain even if it finishes well ahead of its opponents.

On Sunday, AfD hopes to win an absolute majority in the state legislature. That would overcome the so-called “firewall” of mainstream parties’ refusal to work with AfD, whose regional branch is one of several classified by the domestic intelligence agency as a proven right-wing extremist group. AfD vehemently rejects accusations of extremism.

AfD, polling at over 40 percent for months in Saxony-Anhalt, even has its sights on winning its first-ever state government, although this is far from assured.

A bid to break the ‘firewalls’

The small state is now ruled by Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, in coalition with two smaller parties. State premier Sven Schulze hopes to build another multiparty coalition to cling to power.

The AfD’s top candidate Siegmund — a telegenic 35-year-old who is feted like a rock star at campaign events and has a large social media following — has confidently predicted gaining an absolute majority, AFP reported.

“It was the others who erected the firewalls,” he told Bild daily. “If no one wants to work with us, then we’ll just have to do it alone.”

The party’s national co-leaders, Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, said this week that AfD “wants to implement the law of the land — for example with a view to illegal migration — and ensure that Germany remains worth living in.” They decried other parties’ records and argued in a statement that an absolute majority for AfD is “almost the only chance to change course.”

Pressure on Merz

Merz said an AfD government would be an economic own-goal. “If there were to be an absolute majority for a right-wing populist party next Monday, then international investors will think three times about whether they still invest in Saxony-Anhalt,” he said.

Such a scenario would shake Germany, a country that has long been at pains to atone for its dark history of World War II and the Holocaust and which has so far kept extremist parties in check.

A strong AfD win would also heap pressure on Merz, who has vowed to reboot a stagnant economy and restrict irregular immigration, but has seen his party beaten by the AfD in national surveys too.

“If the AfD wins in Saxony-Anhalt, Merz’s critics will become even more vocal, and calls for better leadership will become impossible to ignore,” said political scientist Wolfgang Schroeder of Kassel University.

However, Schroeder also said he does not expect Merz to be ousted, given the current absence of a strong rival candidate: “As far as I can see, there is no alternative chancellor.”

Siegmund said he will only seek election as governor by state lawmakers if AfD wins an absolute majority, arguing that it needs to break a pattern of parties breaking their preelection promises.

Whether it can win that majority is expected to depend in part on whether parties such as the center-left Social Democrats and Greens top the five percent support needed to keep parliamentary seats, AP reported. If there is no absolute majority for AfD, the party is unlikely to find a coalition partner.

Schulze said he won’t work with the far-right party and his own CDU is “100 percent” behind him. But, if AfD finishes first yet short of a majority, he’s likely to face a difficult task to put together a stable government.

‘Remigration’ and Russia concerns

The AfD’s key campaign promises include a “remigration and deportation offensive”, a ban on LGBTQ pride rainbow flags at public schools, and an end to new wind farms.

The party has also tapped into a sense of nostalgia for communist East Germany and lingering resentment about an enduring wealth gap with the West decades after the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall.

The prospect of an AfD state government — while eagerly awaited by many voters — has sparked alarm among mainstream parties and minority groups.

Thousands of the AfD’s opponents joined a “festival of democracy” rally in Magdeburg on the eve of the vote.

The German Economic Institute warned the AfD’s immigration policy would be “ruinous” for the state whose population is already aging and shrinking and highly reliant on foreign-born workers.

Others have voiced fears an AfD-run state security apparatus could leak sensitive information to Russia.

The Kremlin “makes no secret of the fact that the AfD is the most important instrument for destabilizing Germany for (Russian President Vladimir) Putin,” Thuringia state interior minister Georg Maier told the Handelsblatt daily.

The latest poll, released Thursday by public broadcaster ZDF, gave the AfD a commanding lead of 41 percent, AFP reported.

The CDU got 23 percent, the center-left Social Democrats 8.5 percent and the Greens 6 percent, while two smaller parties failed to cross the 5 percent hurdle to reenter parliament.

What if AfD falls short?

If AfD finishes first but falls short of an absolute majority, Schulze could try to form a minority government with other parties, relying on at least tacit support from the Left Party, with which the CDU refuses to form a coalition.

There is precedent for such an outcome. Two years ago in neighboring Thuringia, AfD finished first in a state election but did not enter government, while a CDU governor took power at the head of a minority administration, AP reported.

In the final stretch of campaigning, a social media video stoked fears about mail vote fraud, with claims of manipulation at an elderly care home that were denied by state authorities.

Germany’s parliamentary speaker Julia Kloeckner dismissed AfD speculation of voter manipulation in comments to news weekly Der Spiegel.

“Questioning elections without concrete evidence appears to have one goal,” she said, “to sow distrust in our rules and to accept the results only if the outcome suits.”

Sunday’s vote will be followed on Sept. 20 by two more tricky tests for Merz’s CDU and its main partners in the national government, the Social Democrats.

There are state elections that day in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, an eastern region where a center-left government faces a strong challenge from AfD, and in Berlin, currently led by Merz’s party.