Israeli officials float ‘slow collapse’ scenario for Iran, say ‘cracks’ forming in regime – report

Israeli defense officials are outlining a scenario in which Iran’s regime does not immediately fall during the ongoing conflict, but instead undergoes a gradual collapse afterward, Channel 12 reports.

According to the report, the scenario – referred to in internal discussions as a “slow collapse” – envisions the US-Israeli war with Iran ending with the current regime still in place but significantly weakened. That would be followed by a gradual erosion of its stability.

Security officials reportedly cite several factors that could drive such a process, including Iran’s worsening economic crisis, widespread public dissatisfaction with the regime, the potential emergence of alternative leadership, continued internal unrest, sustained regional pressure from a coalition of Gulf states and other foreign powers, and growing international diplomatic isolation.

Officials cited in the report also say Israeli assessments indicate “cracks” within Iran’s leadership, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the military chain of command that are “plain to see.”

According to the report, Israeli officials believe motivation among some Iranian military units – including air defense forces – has undergone a “dramatic drop,” with commanders said to be forcing soldiers who are scared of Israeli strikes to continue carrying out missile launches.